Bitcoin danced on the edge on Tuesday, hovering just above the critical $103,500 support zone as traders braced for a potential breakdown. With selling pressure intensifying and technical indicators flashing red across multiple timeframes, the market is on edge — waiting to see whether gravity or resilience will prevail this round.
Daily Chart: Bears in Control
The broader daily picture remains distinctly bearish. Bitcoin has now dropped nearly 20% from its October high of $126,272, forming a clear downtrend of lower highs and lower lows.
The current pivot — around $103,530 — has already been tested twice. A clean break below this level could open the door to a deeper slide toward the $98,000–$100,000 range. Rising red volume bars confirm that sellers still dominate the market. Unless bulls mount a convincing reversal backed by strong volume, the downside pressure could intensify.
4-Hour Chart: Weak Rebounds, Strong Resistance
Zooming into the 4-hour chart, Bitcoin’s structure mirrors the daily trend — a firm downtrend with a lower high at $116,381. Recent candles near support appear small and indecisive, signaling hesitation among buyers.
A cluster of heavy red volume bars points to possible panic selling, and the $108,000–$110,000 range looms as a formidable resistance zone. A decisive drop below $103,553 without a successful retest would likely confirm further bearish continuation.
1-Hour Chart: Flagging Momentum
On the hourly chart, Bitcoin managed a faint bounce from $103,553, but momentum remains absent — both literally and figuratively. The pattern resembles a bear flag, often a precursor to another leg down.
Volume on the rebound has been unimpressive, suggesting limited buyer participation. A strong hourly close above $105,000 with notable volume could signal a short-term relief rally, but sellers are expected to defend the $106,000 zone aggressively.
Indicators: A Sea of Red
The technical landscape supports the bearish bias:
RSI: 36 — weak and leaning toward oversold territory.
Stochastic: 20 — echoing limited bullish energy.
CCI: −168 — confirming deep negative momentum.
ADX: 18 — showing a weak but consistent trend.
Awesome Oscillator: −4,768
Momentum: −7,207
MACD: −1,627
Every major EMA and SMA — from 10-day through 200-day — currently sits above price, amplifying the downward gravitational pull.
The Critical Line: $103,500
At this stage, Bitcoin is clinging to the edge, and all major timeframes converge on the same inflection point: $103,500. It’s the line where bulls could stage a comeback — or get crushed beneath the weight of the trend.
Bullish Scenario
If Bitcoin can hold $103,500 decisively, ideally with an uptick in buying volume and a bullish reversal pattern, a short-term rebound toward $108,000–$110,000 remains possible. Momentum could flip positive if buyers reappear with conviction, but they’ll need to overcome multiple resistance layers to reclaim control.
Bearish Scenario
Failure to defend $103,500 without a convincing retest could trigger a swift fall to the $98,000–$100,000 range. The downtrend remains intact across all major timeframes, and with momentum indicators aligned to the downside, bears currently hold the upper hand — unless the bulls pull off an unlikely counterattack.
For now, Bitcoin stands at the edge of a precipice — and the next few candles could decide whether it stabilizes or slips deeper into the red.
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