BTC走势分析

The chart under discussion outlines a potential long-term trajectory for Bitcoin (BTC), projecting a possible surge toward the $150,000 mark by 2026. While some text in the image is unclear, the price structure and labeling offer valuable insight into the projected path and the broader market narrative.

🔍 Key Phases Highlighted in the Chart

The visual breaks down Bitcoin’s historical and projected performance into four distinct stages:

🟢 1. Accumulation/Consolidation Phase

Located on the left side of the chart.

Characterized by sideways movement at relatively lower price levels.

Often interpreted as a period when long-term holders (“smart money”) accumulate positions before major price moves.

🚀 2. Initial Bullish Impulse ("NEXTL DEFLO")

A breakout from the prior range, marking the transition from accumulation to expansion.

Suggests a shift in market sentiment, reinforced by strong upward movement.

Labeled "NEXTL DEFLO", potentially indicating a new structural level or breakout zone.

🔺 3. Strong Uptrend and Local Peak ("HARJL JOUBEZ")

A robust rally following the breakout, pushing BTC into a locally overextended zone.

The "HARJL JOUBEZ" label appears to mark a resistance or market climax area.

Followed by natural consolidation or profit-taking as momentum cools.

📊 4. Current Price Action & Forward Projection

Recent price movement reflects consolidation or recovery following the previous peak.

The projected trajectory on the chart implies a resumption of the uptrend, aligning with historical post-halving cycles.

🎯 The $150,000 Target by 2026 — What's the Thinking Behind It?

While exact technical tools are not visible, the pattern aligns with common themes in Bitcoin macro analysis:

🌀 Cyclical Market Behavior

Bitcoin has historically moved in multi-year cycles, often influenced by halving events and broader market trends.

💡 Growing Institutional and Retail Demand

BTC is increasingly viewed as a digital store of value or “digital gold.”

Long-term adoption trends and demand from institutions may continue driving demand higher.

⛏️ Supply Scarcity

The fixed supply of 21 million BTC underpins the scarcity narrative, especially as more coins move into long-term storage.

⚠️ Key Considerations for the Path Ahead

Achieving or approaching the $150K level will depend on multiple fundamental and macro factors:

🌐 1. Macroeconomic Conditions

Inflation, global liquidity, and central bank policy can significantly impact demand for hard assets like Bitcoin.

📜 2. Regulatory Clarity

Supportive and transparent crypto regulations are critical to sustained investor confidence and adoption.

⚙️ 3. Technological Progress

Improvements like the Lightning Network, institutional custody solutions, and increased usability can drive network value and adoption.

Conclusion

The chart provides a long-view projection of Bitcoin’s potential path toward $150,000 by 2026, based on cyclical behavior and underlying market structure. While such projections are not guarantees, they offer a framework to understand possible future scenarios, especially when supported by strong fundamentals and historical precedent.
> Note: This analysis is not financial advice.

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Is BTC Still Growing?
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1. Strong YTD Performance & Institutional Inflows
In 2025, Bitcoin has gained around 15% year‑to‑date, closing in on its all‑time highs near $112 k .
Institutional sentiment is booming: Bitcoin spot ETF inflows have reached $45–50 billion .
Over 135 public companies are now holding BTC, and governments (like the U.S.) have even created strategic reserves, echoing increased mainstream confidence .
2. Bullish Price Forecasts
Analysts largely predict further upside:
Justin Lin (Global X) sees potential for a 45% gain, targeting $200 k next year .
Ed Campbell (Rosenberg) points to key technical resistance around $114 k — a breakout could push BTC to $143 k .
Reports from Standard Chartered, Galaxy Digital, and others forecast a range of $150 k–$200 k by end‑2025 .
More optimistic voices (Tom Lee, Chamath Palihapitiya) raise hopes of $250 k or more by 2025 .
3. Key Drivers Behind Growth
1. 2024 Bitcoin Halving: Reduced miner rewards create supply scarcity—historically, halving events have triggered bull markets .
2. ETF Adoption: Spot ETFs offer easier, regulated access for large investors, fueling capital inflows .
3. Macro & Political Tailwinds: Anticipated interest rate cuts, weakening dollar, and geopolitical uncertainties (e.g., strategic reserve stance in U.S.) support BTC .
4. Risks to Watch
Market Volatility: Large dormant wallets suddenly moving (e.g., wallets from 2011) could shake confidence if sold off .
Regulatory Shocks: Although current sentiment is positive, global regulatory shifts could impact prices sharply.
Speculative Sentiment: Analysts caution that much of BTC’s momentum could be speculative; technical reversals remain possible .
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🎯 A Clearer Picture
Yes, BTC has been growing steadily in early 2025, supported by strong institutional adoption and positive market catalysts.
Analyst Sentiment: Most see a trajectory toward $150 k–$200 k+ by the end of 2025; some even forecast highs near $250 k .
Balance: While bullish, this outlook carries risks—especially volatility and regulatory uncertainty.
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✅ Final Take
Bitcoin appears positioned for further growth in 2025, potentially setting new highs. If you're considering investing or holding, keep an eye on:
ETF inflows trends
Technical levels (e.g., $114 k resistance)
Regulatory headlines
These will likely influence BTC's trajectory going forward.
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Want a deeper dive into risk management, technical analysis, or portfolio allocation strategies? Just let me know!
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#BTC走势分析

Date: July 7, 2025
$BTC
$ETH
$BNB

Current Market Snapshot
As of the latest trading session, Bitcoin (BTC) is priced at $108,516.30 against Tether (USDT). The price reflects a slight intraday decline of 0.29%, indicating mild bearish pressure. The 24-hour high was $109,700, while the low dipped to $108,019, showcasing the ongoing intraday volatility.
Technical Overview
Bitcoin's current positioning presents a mixed sentiment in the short term. Here's a breakdown of the major indicators and patterns:

1. Moving Averages (MA) Insights:
MA(7): $107,116.66 – Acting as immediate dynamic support.
MA(25): $106,068.88 – Serves as a mid-term support level.
MA(99): $97,770.09 – Strong long-term support and demand zone.
Bitcoin is currently trading above its short and mid-term moving averages, which is a bullish signal in a generally consolidating market. However, momentum seems to be weakening near resistance zones.

2. Resistance and Support Levels:
Immediate Resistance: $111,980 (Recent peak)
Support Zones:
Short-term: $107,100 (near MA7)
Mid-term: $106,000 (near MA25)
Strong support: $98,200 (recent low and recovery point)

The market previously tested the $98,200 level and rebounded, which now acts as a key psychological and technical support.
Suggested Stop-Loss (SL) Points by Strategy
Setting stop-loss levels is critical for managing risk, especially in volatile conditions. Below are strategy-based SL suggestions:
🔹 1. Short-Term Long Position
Entry Range: $108,500 – $109,000
Suggested SL: $106,000
Reasoning: Below the MA(25) and beneath minor local support; provides breathing room without risking too much capital.

🔹 2. Medium-Term Swing Position
Entry Range: $108,000 – $108,500
Suggested SL: $104,000
Reasoning: Below the consolidation zone and local wicks. Protects from deeper drops without exiting prematurely.

🔹 3. Aggressive Intraday Trade
Entry Point: Around $108,500
Suggested SL: $107,000
Reasoning: Just under MA(7); a tight stop ideal for fast scalps or margin trades with minimal risk tolerance.

🔹 4. Longer-Term Swing Trade
Entry Range: $108,000
Suggested SL: $98,000
Reasoning: Below a strong structural support formed after a significant bounce. Good for position traders aiming for higher time frame gains.
Volume & Trend Dynamics
Volume Profile: Volume is currently moderate with slight tapering, suggesting indecision among buyers and sellers.
Trend Sentiment: The broader trend remains bullish over the 90-day (+37.16%) and 1-year (+78.62%) periods.
However, short-term fluctuations indicate potential for pullbacks before further upside.
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Rich Dad Poor Dad author Robert Kiyosaki has a message for market speculators predicting a Bitcoin crash.


His message came as bulls have struggled to drive the BTC price past the $109,500 resistance, with traders showing little interest at this point. Furthermore, expectations of a BTC crash to $90,000 are on the rise.
Robert Kiyosaki Says He Welcomes a Bitcoin Crash
In his message on the X platform, Robert Kiyosaki fired back at Bitcoin skeptics, while dismissing crash warnings as fear tactics aimed at shaking out weak hands. His comments come as the crypto market faces strong selling pressure, with BTC failing to surpass the $109,500 resistance. In his message on the X platform, Kiyosaki wrote:
“CLICK BAIT Losers keeps warning of a Bitcoin crash. They want to frighten off the speculators. I hope Bitcoin crashes. I will only buy more. Take care”.
Reaffirming his long-term bullish stand on Bitcoin, Kiyosaki stated that any sharp Bitcoin correction would present a fresh buying opportunity. Robert Kiyosaki is a long-term Bitcoin bull and expects BTC to hit $1 million in the long term by 2030. His comments come amid heightened market volatility and increasing speculation around BTC’s near-term trajectory.
For the near term, Kiyosaki is more bullish on Silver, among all asset classes, and expects it to explode in July. He also believes that the Silver price could 3x to $105 by the end of the year. He further added that any Bitcoin dip could be an opportunity to buy for the long term. Currently, BTC price is facing rejection at $109,500 while macro factors like the falling US Dollar Index support the upside.
Will BTC See All-Time High Soon?
With US President Donald Trump passing the ‘Big Beautiful Bill’ and the US Dollar Index showing weakness, Bitcoin can get an upside thrust from here, hitting fresh all-time highs.
Historically, Bitcoin shares an inverse correlation with USD, and thus, BTC should continue its upside from here. Furthermore, Bitcoin has been effectively following the Global M2 money trail, and so eyes and upside to $170K.

Crypto market experts remain divided over where BTC is heading next from here. Veteran trader Peter Brandt predicts an upside to $190K, however, Arthur Hayes expects a drop to $90 ahead of the Jackson Hole event in August.

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