As Bitcoin trades around $105,857, economist and “The Bitcoin Standard” author Saifedean Ammous has issued a cautionary statement on the Coin Stories podcast, warning that the leading cryptocurrency may be nearing the top of its current bull cycle.
Ammous stated that despite institutional adoption and corporate treasury allocations, Bitcoin (BTC) remains historically prone to severe drawdowns, suggesting that a decline of up to 80% remains possible. “Bitcoin has done -70% and -80% before, and it can do it again,” Ammous said, urging businesses to reevaluate their exposure if they cannot endure such a downturn.
He added that Bitcoin’s market cycle peaks historically occur within 12 to 18 months following a halving event. From its bottom at $15,000, BTC has already rallied over 600%, reaching a recent high near $109,000.
The warning comes as corporate Bitcoin adoption accelerates, with Paris-based Blockchain Group acquiring $68 million worth of BTC this week, bringing its total holdings to nearly 1,500 BTC. Meanwhile, Metaplanet recently surpassed 8,888 BTC after purchasing 1,088 BTC at an average price of $108,400, positioning itself as the eighth-largest corporate BTC holder.
Echoing Ammous’ concerns, Bitcoin advocate Max Keiser questioned whether new entrants adopting a "Bitcoin treasury strategy" will maintain their holdings during extended bear markets. He contrasted them with Michael Saylor’s Strategy, which has consistently held BTC through downturns without selling.
Despite cautionary outlooks, bullish BTC forecasts persist, with $200,000 remaining a widely cited price target for 2025 among analysts.
