According to BlockBeats, glassnode published market insights stating that the current annualized realized volatility indicators for all short-term Bitcoin have fallen to about 30% or below, marking a low volatility range since the bottom of $107,000. Such calm rarely persists, and volatility spikes often follow. The market is nearing a breaking point, and momentum is about to shift.
Market momentum can be assessed from multiple angles—one of which is through realized profits (30-day moving average) capital inflows. Currently, this figure stands at $1.17 billion per day, down about 47% from the peak of $2.2 billion in June, but still above the baseline during bear market phases (<$800 million). Momentum is weakening, and balance is becoming fragile. The net flow of U.S. spot ETFs (90-day moving average) is also showing a similar trend. This marks a significant decline in TradFi buyer momentum, indicating that institutional demand is weakening.
However, the drop to $107,000 triggered panic selling from top buyers, laying a typical foundation for a market rebound. Bitcoin may rebound to $114,000 in the short term, but as long as the price remains below that level, the overall trend tends to continue to be bearish.
