● Macro Outlook: The market will focus on U.S. PMI data and the non-farm payroll report
According to PANews, early this week, due to U.S. intervention in the conflict with Iran, the dollar rose, but after the ceasefire agreement was signed, the dollar retraced its gains and fell below 97. In the coming week, the market will focus on U.S. PMI data and the non-farm payroll report. On Monday, U.S. June Chicago PMI; Atlanta Fed Chairman Bostic discusses the U.S. economic outlook.
On Tuesday, Chicago Fed Chairman Goolsbee speaks; Federal Reserve Chairman Powell participates in a panel discussion; U.S. June ISM Manufacturing PMI, May JOLTs job openings, and May construction spending month-over-month. On Thursday, U.S. initial jobless claims, June unemployment rate, non-farm payrolls, and May trade balance. For the June non-farm payroll report, the market expects the unemployment rate to remain unchanged at 4.2%, and employment numbers to decrease from the previous increase of 139,000 to 129,000.
If the ISM data in the coming week also depicts a similar scenario, investors may scale back their rate cut bets, especially if non-farm payroll data continues to show good performance in the labor market. As the market gradually adapts to the idea that the Federal Reserve may remain patient before resuming rate cuts, the dollar could rebound.
● The U.S. Senate is expected to vote on the new version of Trump's tax reform proposal soon
According to ChainCatcher, the Republican-controlled U.S. Senate has released a new version of a $4.2 trillion tax and spending plan. With the July 4 deadline set by Trump approaching, the voting procedure is about to begin.
The new draft reflects compromises among various factions within the Republican Party. The draft includes a temporary agreement reached with House Republicans to raise the state and local tax (SALT) deduction limit from $10,000 to $40,000 for five years, after which it will revert to the original standard. Republicans plan to initiate the tax reform bill voting procedure as early as noon local time on Saturday (early Sunday morning, East Eight Time), with the final vote possibly scheduled for early Sunday morning (Monday afternoon, East Eight Time).
● REX Shares: Solana staking ETF is about to launch
According to PANews, REX Shares announced on platform X that it will soon launch the Solana staking exchange-traded fund "REX-Osprey SOL+Staking ETF". This ETF aims to track Solana's performance and generate returns through on-chain staking. It is reportedly the first staking cryptocurrency ETF in the U.S. Bloomberg senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas stated that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission has not commented further and seems ready to launch. Previously, REX Shares and Osprey Funds had submitted applications to the SEC to launch Ethereum and Solana staking ETFs.
According to Wu Shuo's report, the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission and the Financial Services and the Treasury Bureau released a consultation document, requiring that activities such as cryptocurrency trading, withdrawals, and exchanges for fiat currency must apply for licenses, bringing digital asset over-the-counter trading platforms under regulation. The new regulations require trading service providers to have a minimum paid-up capital of 5 million HKD, custodians to have 10 million HKD, and must have two responsible personnel approved by the Securities and Futures Commission.
● Cathie Wood: New U.S. mortgage rules could significantly boost cryptocurrency
According to Deep Tide TechFlow, ARK Invest CEO Cathie Wood stated that new U.S. mortgage rules could significantly boost cryptocurrency. Previously, the U.S. housing regulator indicated plans to classify cryptocurrency as an identified asset for mortgage applications.
Previously, the U.S. housing regulator indicated plans to classify cryptocurrency as an identified asset for mortgage applications.
According to Deep Tide TechFlow, the Trump administration's final military and intelligence assessment will be crucial for future strategies in nuclear negotiations with Iran as it shifts from military strikes to diplomatic negotiations. Trump's envoy Steve Witkoff needs to utilize this final battlefield damage assessment to formulate U.S. diplomatic strategy.
Despite President Trump claiming that Iran's nuclear program has been "completely destroyed", preliminary assessments from the Defense Intelligence Agency show that the attack did not destroy the core components of the country's nuclear program. Former officials emphasized that even if facilities are severely damaged, it does not mean that the nuclear program itself has been completely destroyed.
Experts point out that future negotiations with Iran should prioritize the return of UN nuclear oversight agencies to Iran.
According to Deep Tide TechFlow, KPMG's latest research shows that 74% of German companies plan to invest in digitalizing internal processes by 2025, focusing on artificial intelligence, cloud computing, and cybersecurity. At the same time, 79% of German companies plan to invest in India by 2030, a significant increase from 53% in 2025. Seventy-four percent of companies plan to utilize India to advance their digitalization plans by 2025, and 56% plan to make India a production base for the Asian market by 2030.
