According to Cointelegraph, data from Avenir Group and Glassnode shows that most of the inflows into the spot BTC ETF are unhedged long positions, indicating the genuine conviction of institutional investors rather than short-term arbitrage strategies.
The research indicates that BTC continues to act as a traditional macro asset, with a strong correlation to stocks, gold, and liquidity cycles, inversely tracking the US dollar and high-yield credit spreads.
Reports from Glassnode and Avenir Group state that the launch of the US spot BTC ETF is a milestone for the crypto market, but there are still doubts about the authenticity of capital inflows.
Researchers indicate that although strict models filter out arbitrage activities, the data still shows a strong correlation between unhedged demand and inflows into the spot BTC ETF, suggesting a firm commitment from institutional investors.
Analysts point out that the steady rise in spot ETF holdings marks a change in the BTC market structure, with BTC being viewed as an institutional asset, bringing more stable capital and liquidity.
The research also points out that BTC is increasingly resembling a macro asset, with its performance closely related to broader financial conditions, positively correlated with traditional risk assets such as the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and gold, while inversely tracking the US dollar index and high-yield spreads.
André Dragosch, head of research at Bitwise Europe, emphasizes the connection between global money supply and BTC prices, estimating that for every additional $1 trillion in global money supply, BTC prices could rise by $13,861.
