According to Jin10 data, analysts at BNP Paribas stated that if the market rules out expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut rates this year, the U.S. two-year Treasury yield will rise in the coming months. Analysts expect that by September 2025, the market will delay the originally anticipated two rate cuts this year to 2026.
This will lead to the two-year Treasury yield initially rising before retreating at the end of the year. The two-year Treasury yield is expected to rise to 4.10% in the third quarter and fall to 4.00% in the fourth quarter. Analysts also expect the Federal Reserve to implement four rate cuts in 2026.