According to reports from Jinshi Data, for several months, Federal Reserve policymakers have wanted fiscal and trade policies and economic responses to be clearer before taking further action on interest rates. Over the past month, this cautious stance has led traders to withdraw their bets on an interest rate cut at the June meeting, and the market expects a policy pause to continue until the July meeting. However, futures market positions show that the probability of an interest rate cut before the end of September is still slightly above 50%. This reflects a bet on the situation clarifying over the next four months: either inflation slows down paving the way for policy easing, or economic deterioration forces the Federal Reserve to ramp up stimulus.