According to reports from Jinshi Data, the Chief Investment Office of UBS Wealth Management stated that the United States may avoid a full-blown recession this year, but slowing growth and a weak labor market could prompt the Federal Reserve to resume interest rate cuts in the coming months. The Federal Reserve is expected to start cutting rates in September, with a total reduction of 75 basis points for the year.
Although the peak of pessimism triggered by Trump's trade policies may have passed, ongoing uncertainty could still exacerbate market volatility. Current high bond yields are beneficial for those seeking sustained income. Historical data shows that as the holding period extends, the probability of bonds outperforming cash increases. UBS maintains the view that high-rated and investment-grade bonds are 'attractive,' expecting such bonds to achieve mid-single-digit returns over the next 12 months.