According to Jinshi data reports, Barclays has postponed the timing of the next interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan from July 2025 to January 2026. Economists from Barclays' FICC Research pointed out that the Bank of Japan adjusted its policy guidance in the quarterly outlook report and revised down its expectations, especially for economic growth.
Considering the Bank of Japan's new guidance and forecast revisions, Barclays also lowered its forecast for the terminal rate from 1.25% to 1.00%. However, Barclays still believes that there is a high possibility of the Bank of Japan raising interest rates within 2025, depending on tariffs, foreign exchange, and inflation.