US Data
Average Hourly Earnings (m/m): 0.3% (forecast 0.3%, previous 0.3%) → in line
• Non-Farm Employment Change: 22K (forecast 75K, previous 79K) → much weaker than expected
• Unemployment Rate: 4.3% (forecast 4.3%, previous 4.2%) → slightly higher
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🔎 Quick Analysis for Crypto (BTC & ETH focus)
1. Weaker Jobs Growth (22K vs. 75K forecast):
• This is a major miss. It signals a slowing US labor market → raises expectations that the Fed could cut rates sooner.
• Lower rates = weaker USD = bullish for BTC & ETH.
2. Unemployment Rising (4.3% from 4.2%):
• Confirms labor weakness. Risk assets (stocks, crypto) typically rally on Fed easing bets.
3. Wages Steady (0.3% m/m):
• Inflation pressure is not spiking. This gives the Fed more room to pivot dovish.
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🚀 Crypto Impact Outlook
• BTC/ETH short-term: Expect increased volatility. First reaction may be choppy, but weaker NFP + higher unemployment leans bullish for crypto.
• Macro narrative: Market may start pricing in earlier Fed cuts → risk-on sentiment → BTC could test higher resistance levels.
• Caution: If risk sentiment flips to “recession fears,” equities might drag crypto down short-term, but overall setup remains positive for BTC medium-term.
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