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The number of initial unemployment claims reaches a new high since October last year: the significance of the signal cannot be ignored
Latest data from July 2025 shows that the number of initial unemployment claims in the United States has reached 248,000, higher than the market expectation of 235,000 and also higher than the previous value of 229,000. This surge may not be a coincidence, but rather a deeper turning signal — the U.S. labor market may be cooling down.

📉 Slowing job market = Is the Federal Reserve closer to cutting interest rates?

Theoretically, a weakening job market would ease inflationary pressures, thereby strengthening the Federal Reserve's case for interest rate cuts. However, reality is not that straightforward:

If data continues to weaken in the coming weeks, especially if non-farm payrolls and the unemployment rate deteriorate simultaneously, the Federal Reserve will face the real pressure of “having to act”;
but if this is a short-term fluctuation (such as seasonal factors or one-time layoffs), it will not directly shake the Federal Reserve's current “hawkish stance of waiting and seeing”.
I personally feel that this is a “forward-looking signal” worth closely tracking, especially significant for risk assets like Bitcoin and the Nasdaq. Once it is confirmed that employment is slowing down overall + inflation remains controllable, the Federal Reserve's tone will soften, and the market will react in advance.
But now is not the time for an “all in risk” approach. It feels more like the eve of “starting to prepare for a position shift”.

In summary:

Employment data is loosening, market sentiment is preemptively rehearsing easing expectations, but a “real shift” still needs more confirmation. Stay flexible, don’t rush ahead, and don’t fall behind.
#U.S. initial unemployment claims #bnb