Data from trade tracker Vizion revealed that what began as a rapid drop in U.S. imports, as shippers cut down orders from manufacturing partners globally, has now extended into a nationwide export decline. The firm noted that the U.S. agricultural sector and top farm products, including soybeans, corn, and beef, are taking the hardest hit.

Executive director of the Agriculture Transportation Coalition (AgTC) Peter Friedmann warned last week of a “full-blown crisis” in the agricultural sector. Port data shows more evidence of a lack of ability to move products to global markets.

Trump trade tariffs drive U.S. imports and exports to near COVID level

Trump trade tariffs slump widens to 'nearly all U.S. exports,' supply chain data shows

This is the issue that we need to be watching…US EXPORTS DECLINING!https://t.co/GZoeNJKod8 pic.twitter.com/jK0IgcS9lI

— Sal Mercogliano (WGOW Shipping) 🚢⚓🐪🚒🏴‍☠️ (@mercoglianos) May 6, 2025

Data from trade tracker Vizion indicated a decline in U.S. exports to the world, and China in particular, which began in January and now extends to most U.S. ports. The firm analyzed U.S. export container bookings for the five-week period before the tariffs began and the five weeks after the tariffs took effect.

Vizion revealed that the Port of Oregon was affected the most, with a 51% decrease in exports, while the Port of Tacoma has seen a 28% decrease. Both ports’ top export destinations for corn, soybeans, and other agricultural produce include China, Japan, and South Korea.

According to the container tracking firm, other ports have only seen a small export decrease, such as the Port of Houston and Port of Seattle, with 3% and 3.5%, respectively.  Data from Vizion showed declines of over 17% at the Port of Los Angeles, while the Port of Savannah was down 13%, and the Port of Norfolk plummeted 12%. The vice president of strategic business development at Vizion, Ben Tracy, argued that it was clear that nearly all of the U.S. exports have taken a hit.

We haven’t seen anything like this since the disruptions of summer 2020. That means goods expected to arrive in the next six to eight weeks simply won’t. With tariffs driving costs higher, small businesses are pausing orders. Products that once moved reliably are now twice as expensive, forcing importers into tough decisions.”

-Kyle Henderson, CEO of Vizion.

Henderson also believes the drop in exports is linked to the decline in containerships coming to the U.S., as businesses across the economy cancel manufacturing orders due to changes in global demand linked to Trump’s trade policies. The analytics firm showed a 43% week-over-week drop in containers from the week of April 21 to the week of April 28.

Bank of America expects a continued drop in U.S. imports in the coming weeks

The Port of Los Angeles–the country's largest container port–is currently projecting a 20% decline in import containers over the next three weeks relative to last year.

This is what the beginning of a supply chain crisis looks like Hopefully Trump stops it here. pic.twitter.com/iyVE3XS3Ap

— Brendan Duke (@Brendan_Duke) April 30, 2025

The Bank of America Global Research suggested that retailers have urged consumers to buy sooner rather than later. The institution’s latest forecast showed that the number of inbound container ships to the Port of Los Angeles will drop sharply in May. The firm also believes that trade disruptions will escalate, leading to a 15% to 20% decrease in U.S. container imports from Asia in the coming weeks.

The Bank of America also warned its clients that the ratio of retail inventories to monthly sales was not high, while at the same time, consumers have been buying ahead of expectations of higher prices and a lack of product choice. The financial institution’s data on retail payments on transportation and shipping companies showed no big ramp in inventories after the frontloading that occurred earlier this year. 

The Bank of America said it believes it’s possible retail inventories may actually look “lean” in the coming months. The bank also added that many retailers have one or two months of sales in inventory and that any foreseen demand or supply disruptions can quickly impact what goods retailers can offer and the prices charged.

Tim Robertson, CEO of DHL Global Forwarding, believes that retailers who lock capacity now, especially in fast-moving sectors like toys, consumer electronics, and fashion, give themselves the chance to change assortments later without haste. Robertson argued that it wasn’t about pushing extra volume but rather about sequencing the flow – balancing ocean, air, and intermodal options if demand shifts.

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