According to PANews, at the beginning of this week, the dollar strengthened due to U.S. intervention in the Israel-Hamas conflict, but after the ceasefire agreement was signed, the dollar retraced its gains and fell below 97. Next week, the market will focus on U.S. PMI data and the non-farm payroll report.
On Monday, the U.S. June Chicago PMI; Atlanta Fed President Bostic discusses the outlook for the U.S. economy. On Tuesday, Chicago Fed President Goolsbee speaks; Fed Chairman Powell participates in a panel discussion; U.S. June ISM Manufacturing PMI, May JOLTs job openings, and May construction spending month-over-month. On Thursday, U.S. initial jobless claims, June unemployment rate, non-farm payrolls, and May trade balance.
For the June non-farm payroll report, the market expects the unemployment rate to remain unchanged at 4.2%, with employment numbers decreasing from the previous increase of 139,000 to 129,000. If next week's ISM data also depicts a similar picture, investors may reduce their bets on interest rate cuts, especially if non-farm payroll data continues to show a strong performance in the labor market. As the market gradually adapts to the idea that the Fed may remain patient before resuming the rate cut process, the dollar may rebound.