According to Cointelegraph, data from Avenir Group and Glassnode indicates that most of the inflow into the spot BTC ETF consists of unhedged long positions, reflecting the genuine belief of institutional investors rather than short-term arbitrage strategies.
The research indicates that BTC continues to behave like a traditional macro asset, with strong correlations to stocks, gold, and liquidity cycles, while inversely tracking the dollar and high-yield credit spreads.
Reports from Glassnode and Avenir Group state that the launch of the U.S. spot BTC ETF is a milestone for the crypto market, but whether the capital inflow is genuine remains in doubt.
Researchers state that although strict models filter out arbitrage activity, the data still shows a strong correlation between unhedged demand and inflows to the spot BTC ETF, indicating a firm commitment from institutional investors.
Analysts point out that the steady rise in spot ETF holdings marks a change in the BTC market structure, with BTC being viewed as an institutional asset, bringing more stable capital and liquidity.
The research also notes that BTC increasingly resembles a macro asset, with its performance closely related to broader financial conditions, positively correlated with traditional risk assets such as the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and gold, while inversely tracking the dollar index and high-yield spreads.
André Dragosch, head of research at Bitwise Europe, emphasizes the connection between global money supply and BTC prices, estimating that for every additional trillion dollars in global money supply, the BTC price could rise by $13,861.
