According to reports from Jinshi Data, the minutes of the Federal Reserve's May meeting indicate a difficult trade-off in the coming months with the potential for both inflation and unemployment rates to rise. Officials' estimates of increased risks of recession support this outlook.
The simultaneous rise in inflation and unemployment rates will force committee members to decide whether to prioritize tightening monetary policy to combat inflation or to support economic growth and employment through interest rate cuts. Almost all participants indicated that inflation may be more persistent than expected.
The Federal Reserve expects that due to the impact of tariffs, the inflation rate will rise significantly this year, while the job market is anticipated to weaken considerably. The unemployment rate is expected to rise above the long-term expectation level of full employment and remain at that level for two years.