【LA Short Line Alert】Is the "false breakout" above 0.38 or a "true start"? Understand the life and death lines of bulls and bears in one chart!
#lagrange @Lagrange Official #Lagrange Current spot price 0.383, futures 0.3831, the price has risen above MA200 (0.355) by 7.8%, but faces a sell wall (sell/buy = 1.55) + contract reduction of -8.25M. If it cannot break through 0.389 with volume in the short term, it will retest POC 0.359. Aggressive traders can place long orders at 0.365 on the pullback, stop loss at 0.359, target 0.389, risk-reward ratio 2.3; conservative traders should wait for a breakthrough at 0.389 and then pull back to 0.384 before entering long, stop loss at 0.38. Note: If the position is reduced for 4 consecutive hours and selling pressure is heavy, breaking below 0.359 will trigger a long squeeze.
Key Range Structure and Volume Distribution
1. Value Anchoring Zone: POC 0.359 (14-day maximum transaction 283 million), with a 5 consecutive HVN (0.362-0.371) accumulation above creating a long buffer zone; the only LVN below 0.324 is a short gap, which, if broken, could quickly slide to 0.308.
2. 70% Volume Coverage Zone: 0.333-0.532, current price located at the upper edge 23%, not overbought but deviated from the midpoint, short-term mean reversion demand exists.
3. Momentum Verification: Up Volume above POC 56%, no absolute bullish advantage formed; 0.389-0.393 range Up Volume 61%, if it breaks with volume, it can confirm continued bullishness.
4. Bollinger Bands: Middle track 0.372, upper track 0.419, current price closely follows above the middle track, bandwidth narrowing, waiting for direction selection.
5. Contract Positions: Continuous reduction of -5.13% for 1h-24h, bullish reduction > bearish, lacking sustained upward fuel in the short term.
Market Cycle
The medium term is still in a bear market rebound phase (14-day drop -25.6%), short-term is the end of a range rebound; if it cannot break through 0.389, it will return to a volatile downward trend.
Trading Strategy
Aggressive Long Position: 0.365±0.002 (pullback POC + HVN overlap), stop loss at 0.359 (below POC), target 0.389 (previous HVN), risk-reward ratio = 2.3.
Conservative Long Position: After breaking 0.389 and appearing a 1.5 times average volume bullish candle, pullback to 0.384 to enter, stop loss at 0.38, target 0.405, risk-reward ratio = 2.9.
Short Backup: Short after breaking 0.359 and pulling back to 0.362, stop loss at 0.367, target 0.324, risk-reward ratio = 2.8.
Risk Warning
• Sell wall + contract reduction constitutes dual selling pressure; if the 15-minute close falls below 0.359, the strategy is invalidated.
• Funding rate is only 0.005%, very low cost for bulls, easily countered quickly.
• Avoid low liquidity periods from UTC+8 08:00-12:00, position ≤ 1% of account equity.
$LA