In its latest market report, QCP Capital highlighted improving investor sentiment ahead of Friday’s U.S. non-farm payrolls release, with renewed confidence in a stable interest rate environment for the coming quarter. The report noted that the S&P 500 index is nearing the psychologically important 6,000-point level, driven by an unexpected rise in job openings that reinforced optimism around labor market strength.
QCP emphasized that stable non-farm payrolls data would further validate the Federal Reserve’s narrative on economic resilience and reinforce expectations that interest rates will remain unchanged through the near term.
On the crypto front, Bitcoin (BTC) continues to trade within a familiar range, stabilizing around $105,000, while 1-month implied volatility has fallen below 40, suggesting reduced near-term price swings. The market remains position-light, with normalized skewness and a flat volatility curve indicating a lack of clear directional bias.
Since May, the volatility curve has flattened from mid- to long-term maturities, mirroring trends in the VIX index, and has attracted opportunistic long-volatility trades. Notably, Bitcoin's $130,000 September call option was recently bought at 47 volatility, signaling selective bullish sentiment ahead of Q3.
However, QCP cautioned that Q3 may present broader macroeconomic challenges, including the impact of trade tariffs, uncertainties around the Big Beautiful Bill (BBB), and concerns tied to the U.S. debt ceiling. In the absence of a major market catalyst, QCP believes Bitcoin is unlikely to break out of its current trading range in the near term.
