According to Odaily, QCP Capital has noted that as summer approaches, Bitcoin (BTC) continues to trade within a narrow range, with implied volatility under pressure. Despite implied volatility being at a yearly low and appearing 'cheap,' actual volatility is even lower. Historical data from the past two years indicates that short-term option volatility tends to decline further before July each year, a trend observed last year as well.
Bitcoin could reignite widespread market interest if it clearly breaks below $100,000 or above $110,000. However, there are currently no apparent short-term catalysts to drive such a movement. Recent macroeconomic news has caused brief fluctuations but is largely seen as 'noise' by the market, quickly fading without causing directional breakthroughs. Even though U.S. employment data exceeded expectations last Friday, leading to a rise in U.S. stocks and a drop in gold, Bitcoin remained stable, caught in the crosscurrents of multiple macro factors without a clear directional anchor.
Without a compelling narrative to drive a new round of upward momentum, the market is showing signs of fatigue. Open interest in perpetual contracts is decreasing, and inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs have begun to slow. Options trading over the past week also reflects this market hesitation, with a significant number of call options expiring in July being rolled over to September, indicating that investors are postponing their bullish expectations to a later date.
