bc1qDave

“One Night Bull Return” Episode 2: New Fair Range & Anti-Consensus Trading

Holding an optimistic view on the market, BTC broke through a key position yesterday and arrived at a new fair range, but in the medium term, it may be suitable to adopt an anti-consensus trading model.

Bitcoin is currently hovering around 935, seemingly unable to push upward smoothly, with a risk of a pullback at any time. However, it has actually moved out of the previous resistance range: 915-925. This can be seen as a consolidation after the JOC breakout.

This kind of consolidation in the new range actually builds support rather than meets resistance. The upcoming pullback can be considered an opportunity to enter.

At the same time, given the vigorous Dubai conference market, it is suitable to adopt an anti-consensus trading model. Reviewing Consensus, BTC Asia, Token2049, conferences do attract a wave of market attention, especially in the current situation where players are exhausted. The attention of those attending and focusing on the Dubai conference is an important market player.

Market reactions are usually lagging. When everyone realizes “Bull Return” or “Bear Arrival,” the market often has already developed to the tail end.

Therefore, it is now suitable to time a right-side follow-up, looking up to 99, with about 5% space.

When the attendees return to their accommodations after the conference, and the Twitter information flow returns to clarity, everyone suddenly realizes and shouts about the bull return, engaging in anti-consensus trading, at least selling part of their holdings and observing the changes.

However, there is currently another point to observe: the strong rotation of Bitcoin and Ethereum as the dual kings has already been completed. The old hands have become accustomed to being cut by this posture. Next, we need to see if Bitcoin will take over and start the second phase of blood-sucking rise. If so, decisively enter. The right-side winning rate has significantly increased, so one can be a bit more patient.

NFA, DYOR $BTC

Btc once again "bulls back overnight", but don't let the jumping K-line lead you by the nose. Careful traders will notice that yesterday's big rise was not accompanied by trading volume.

There are two reasons for this phenomenon:

1. Leverage liquidation has led to a chain reaction of rising prices, driven by the contract side.
2. The drop on Monday was too severe, and the past few weeks have seen significant declines, creating a vacuum of sell orders above. The temporary supply exhaustion means that even a little buying volume can push the price up.

So what now? Should we go long or short?
Hold back those eager hands wanting to FOMO; it’s better not to be too aggressive at this stage.

1) If Bitcoin breaks 93880, and even pushes up to 94, it can be seen as a confirmation of a rebound. Because after reaching this price range, even if it drops by 2%, it still stands at the previous high of around 92. If Bitcoin continues to rise in a bloodsucking manner, meaning Bitcoin leads the altcoins, then it can be seen as a medium-sized rebound on the daily level. Targeting 99-100.

2) If it fails to break through the key fair value range here, I tend to expect consolidation. As everyone adjusts to the weekly charts, Bitcoin has experienced more than a month of decline. Historically, after such a prolonged one-sided trend in Bitcoin, it often gives a period of consolidation to determine the direction. At this time, it may be necessary to pay attention to some small coins that are making moves, whether they go up or down.

The market has been bad lately, and those so-called traders on Twitter haven't been making much noise, which has made my information flow very quiet, clearly feeling the market trend.

For example, today’s rise, on December 2nd, dropped to 84000, quickly recovered, forming a very obvious head and shoulders bottom. So as soon as it recovered, I closed my short position and waited to see. Including the short around 91, it also had a very clear sense of rhythm.

Do not be influenced by public opinion; everything should start from the facts on the chart, have your own book $BTC #BTC走势分析

Let's review the first half of mon

If I could go back to that night, I would still choose to sell at the right moment; it was the best solution at that time.

1. Unable to determine the selling pressure. 2. The overall trend is downward. 3. The strength of the capital side is unclear & there are rumors about the project party. 4. Entering the pre-sale with costs, there is pressure.

However, it indeed didn't go well for a while. After the rebound at 0.23 stabilized, the huge selling pressure at the opening did not continue to push the price down but instead lifted it, indicating that there must be something unusual. At this time, one should not continue to use the valuation mindset with a bearish perspective; rather, the focus should shift to a strong player's bullish perspective.

At the 0.3 position, I hesitated, and when 39 broke through, I went long, but 40 is a psychological price and a dense resistance. The pullback was too aggressive, and I got washed out. After stabilizing, I was still thinking in terms of valuation, which was using a mindset that has already been disproven.

I've mentioned both gains and losses, and there's another question.

I've been calling out oi fluctuations since November 21, and it has been a net long surge. But at that time, I really didn't know how to interpret it. I seek help from teachers who have been traders to explain how to look at oi; this is the only clue I can capture in many cases of missing information. @ZTZZBTC
@Michael_Liu93

Why did I say at the beginning that mon is the first half? Because I still don't believe that this thing can maintain such a high valuation @CryptoSkanda , the strategy is correct. I plan to wait for oi to start declining and then withdraw with the main force.

$MON

There is some doubt that the US stock market will go directly upwards here. The main reason for this decline is the cleansing of the holding structure, a characteristic of this market is wild fluctuations. The trading volume in the last two days was huge, directly shaking the fundamental elements of bearishness.

However, this week is Thanksgiving, and the market is closed, which theoretically leads to thin liquidity and amplified volatility, so the uncertainty for the next three days is still very high. If there is a V-shaped reversal here, it can only indicate that the demand for the drop in the clearing of chips by the main force is much smaller than we imagine.

Bitcoin is somewhat confusing, as both bullish and bearish reasons are not very compelling:

The most bullish reason is simply that "it has dropped too much," which does not make sense. Various macro benefits + monetary easing seem a bit like wishful thinking (if the reason for the rise is indeed due to interest rate cuts, it has already been cut by 50 points since September, it should have risen already).

The bearish reasons are similarly lacking; sentiment has reached a freezing point, and retail investors have been mostly squeezed out of their panic positions. The selling from whales and bankrupt institutions during liquidation is also difficult to pin down. Open interest liquidation is also in place. The entire network is waiting for 75k; isn't it just like seeking a sword in a boat?

However, it is true that liquidity in the market is poor, so this kind of market is a gamble, queuing to sell vs. protecting the market and bottom-fishing.

From a trading perspective, shorting here is going with the trend but against the small fluctuations, while going long is against the trend but with the small fluctuations. It is still relatively difficult to get involved; perhaps trying out some small cryptocurrencies might be a good idea. $BTC $BNB

Brothers, imagine a 2 sigma channel. I expect the first round of trend-level reversal to be between 69-66. The bottom of this round is at 30-40.

If it reverses up from here, it will be a head and shoulders pattern, which is very clear.

Next week, watch for a rebound, it may follow the large-scale trend of the yen from 24 years ago $BTC

Is ZEC really going to collapse? This article will decode what is driving the rise of ZEC.

Let's go back to October 25, 2025, when high-level talks were held in Kuala Lumpur between China and the United States. A series of consensus was reached at the meeting, among which a key issue was brought to the table and received nods from both sides: the Southeast Asian black market, represented by Chen Zhi, needs regulation.

A few weeks later, the situation in Nanyang changed dramatically. Various warlords in the Indochina Peninsula sent troops to capture thieves, offering letters of allegiance to the Celestial Empire.

The Prince Group, Huiwang Group, Chen Zhi, Qian Zhiming, and the Thai King are about to visit China for the first time, and the recently sensationalized Deep Affection Sister — all these indicate one thing: Southeast Asia has undergone a dramatic change overnight, and the black and gray forces are being “encircled.”

With this backdrop, we can talk about ZEC again. As the industry with the highest demand for money laundering was hit hard, the transfer of Bitcoin is no longer as secure as before. The big players are in dire need of another convenient and fast transfer method, thus the privacy sector has seen a significant increase in demand. For instance, the trading volume of ZEC on the Near chain has increased fivefold over the past month.

The tax evasion demand from North America and the money laundering demand from East Asia have led the two strongest money houses in the world to reach a consensus, becoming a super strong force driving the rise of ZEC.

At the same time, ZEC has features that are very popular in the cryptocurrency community. The batch of obsolete mining machines from 2018 is all compatible with the ZEC algorithm and can be reused to mine ZEC. Moreover, this week ZEC launched a feature to transfer Bitcoin chain assets, which has attracted a large number of mining farms to enter the speculative market.

Money houses + miners, this combination in the cryptocurrency world is stronger than Trump.

Therefore, the core driving force of ZEC is the hidden demand for funds, which is something traders cannot detect at all. Entering now is highly likely to become cannon fodder. This huge amount of capital also ignores all fundamentals; as long as the money hasn’t been laundered completely, and there is still BTC to transfer, the price of ZEC is just a string of numbers.

I suggest that brothers don’t short; in fact, it’s better not to touch it at all. I was waiting to buy on a pullback when it was at 140, waiting for confirmation to short when it was at 480, and now it’s almost 700 again, leaving only a sigh.

$ZEC #太子集团陈志

If you missed this round of ZEC's 15-fold increase, please don't blame yourself too much.

From a trading logic perspective, ZEC is a dilemma. It has two characteristics. 1. Extremely volatile: the fluctuations are very wide. 2. Reckless: it almost ignores all key support and resistance that can be derived from the market.

This leads to a problem—uncertainty about how to set stop-loss orders!
The dilemma of not knowing how to set a stop-loss lies in:

Engaging in "trading" requires being able to calculate odds, even if it's just an estimate; if you don't know how to set a stop-loss, you cannot use trading logic.

Without trading logic, it is a medium to long-term investment logic, treating ZEC as a leading asset. However, medium to long-term investment logic has two dimensions: the first is individual circumstances, and the second is macro conditions. In other words, long-term investment consists of more than half of big trends, but at that time, the market was going down, sharply down. It's impossible to get in under such a trend.

Even as strong as @Nuts坚果 , it could not tame this volatile coin, so there's no need for everyone to get entangled.

$ZEC

Let's talk about my current attitude towards trading. I just made an appointment with Brother Nut @Nuts坚果 for dinner tonight. My view is that the current market conditions are indeed not favorable for trading. When it rises, it looks back three times, and when it falls, there is no time window; it's hard to manage in the short term. Tonight, everyone experienced that again.

However, in the long run, based on fundamentals, Brother Nut is not so pessimistic. Historically, there is a pattern that just before a major trend, the fluctuations are often the most intense. If we wait a little longer, there will be clear trends to grasp.

By the way, I must say that Ave's activities are always quite generous; the team genuinely wants to make it happen. It's worth checking out this trading volume competition, and I also want to take this opportunity to experience Ave's micro-trading experience. The on-chain micro-structural trading experience of a certain kx is very poor; I'm looking forward to Ave.ai.

The market is not good, let's make the most of it if we can.

@Ave_ai @XPINNetwork #Aveai #XPIN #Ave #Ave交易赛

One Night Rejuvenation? Cautiously Optimistic

1. Technical Analysis

Major cryptocurrencies are receiving strong support at the 200-day moving average/key psychological price level, so a rebound is not surprising.

However, above: multiple moving averages are exerting pressure. Trend lines are exerting pressure. There are densely packed resistance levels horizontally.
The key battle point of 106 has not stabilized; the road ahead is steep and dangerous. Calling for a bull market here is premature.

2. Chip Structure

Many whales sold off last month, and supply has paused, leading to a natural rebound. However, the positions that are locked in above have not been resolved. Overall, both the Chinese and English sectors lean towards pessimism regarding the larger trend, and the selling pressure above still needs to be tested.

3. Fundamentals (Capital Flow)

No significant recovery of macro funds has been observed.

Whales adhere to the four-year cycle agreement and have entered a selling wave. Institutional players are affected by macro factors (as Pickle said). The valuation of all risk assets is temporarily adjusting. This week, the U.S. Treasury and corporate bonds will issue $160 billion, equivalent to directly withdrawing liquidity. The possibility of interest rate cuts in December is very high, and traders are waiting.

Bullish Logic:

"The market always trades on expectations," the government's reopening is a very strong incentive, and the narrative around the government's reopening is very convincing.

At the same time, categories of risk assets like U.S. stocks traditionally have a strong cycle in Q4. The inflow of funds is worth looking forward to.

It is advised not to rush; this period is the easiest time to lose money. For everyone, it opens up hellish market conditions, so always be ready for high-certainty opportunities.
$BTC $ETH

The most 'shanzhai' shanzhai season

This wave of shanzhai frenzy is the worst shanzhai season in terms of market conditions. There is still an opportunity in this market, it's worth pursuing. However, one must operate with clarity and caution. I can assure you that in this wave of small shanzhai bulls, there are more people losing money than making it.

1. Bull return?
The inference of this bull return is based solely on yesterday's performance. Shanzhai has been rising for about two days. Therefore, this conclusion belongs to a single positive change in perspective. The fundamental aspects still need confirmation; can we directly look at the bull in the current environment? There is a suspicion of gambling.

2. Trader's time is up
This time the market pull-up is purely capital-driven, with news completely serving the market. For example, $ICP p, I noticed this with a senior sister on the 20th; this is entirely the old big holders pulling the market. Fil, ar, strk, dot are all similar situations; $FIL il, the big holders are directly group friends. ZEC is not; $ZEC is the leading hot speculation.

3. How to play? Find familiar ones to play with
As mentioned above, this is the trader's time, which means one can act entirely based on the market and technical analysis. However, it is essential to find familiar coins to operate; entering the unfamiliar wild market recklessly, without informational advantage, is just cannon fodder.
Familiar means: 1. You have been in love and conflict for a long time. 2. You know a bit of the trader's information.

Some characteristics of the tail-end market: in summary, it is easy to come up with surprises:
1. 'The main rise lasts only three days, even Bitcoin does' (short pull-up time)
2. 'Ten times in one day, no doubling in ten days' (sharp pull-up increase)
3. The volatility is very high, which is also why it's essential to find familiar coins to operate.

What happened in the crypto world? Why are there so many positive news, yet the market is in a total mess?

It's actually just the cycle has arrived. In the short term, a weak market dominated by bull and bear cycles.

Have you noticed the following phenomena?
1. The news can't drive the market. Good news is useless.
2. Following the US stock market and gold, it falls but doesn't rise.
3. On-chain and off-chain liquidity is bleak.
4. Many signals are failing, commonly known as being inaccurate.

This phase of weakness is a manifestation of the early bear cycle. This round is very special; it is the only bull market in a reverse easing cycle. Whether in 2017 or 2020, the start of the bull market coincided with the Fed's easing, and the start of the bear market coincided with the tightening cycle. But this wave in 2024 is a counter-cyclical bull market, the crypto cycle has diverged from the Fed's cycle.

This has also led to the current situation where both the bear and bull camps hold firm opinions, both have their reasons. Which side will prevail in the future? It's hard to tell, but it must be acknowledged that the cyclical forces are currently dominant.

What should we do now? In terms of the secondary market, I would rather be incorrectly optimistic than correctly pessimistic.

We still can't panic.
1) If it is a bull market, just hold on for now; the future gains can still be considerable.
2) If it is a bear market, once the trend is established, shorting becomes an easier market. Because this round has a lot of liquidity trapped on-chain, coupled with a lot of leverage from the US stock companies, many chain liquidations have not yet been reported. If a big bear cycle is established, sticking to shorting downwards will instead be a smoother and more rapid market.

Anyway, let's work hard together!

$SOL $KITE

Today I thought again about Mr. Xin's post. We have entered the 'meme 2.0' era.

The logic of the first phase of memes is 'spread.' Everyone looks for various angles, essentially interpreting the possible paths for this event/meme to spread wider.

The way to build consensus in the first phase is 'attention expansion and monetization.'

The logic of the second phase of memes is 'interests.' Everyone looks for various angles, essentially interpreting the possibilities of this token.

The way to build consensus in the second phase is 'direct expectations of wealth effects.'

Therefore, in the meme 1.0 era, the competition was about understanding the narrative itself, looking at the spread chain. In the meme 2.0 era, the competition is about understanding the token funding model, looking at the interest chain.

This may also explain why during last year's meme craze, so many grassroots heroes became famous overnight, because there is no fixed answer for understanding the narrative itself, and everyone has their own strengths in perspective.
However, this year, when it comes to business models, there are fixed routines. Thus, various leaders, KOL circles, and some so-called 'stables' have become the big winners in extracting liquidity.

Finally, once again quoting the post of @xingpt ,
'Now that you see a meme, you’d better think about the following three points:
- Who are the core circles that might promote this meme? Who benefits from this meme, is it the exchange, this public chain, or other stakeholders?
- How much energy does the promoter of this meme have? Can it go on alpha, can it go on contracts, can it go on spot?
- At what stage is this news in this meme? Is this market value the limit that this promoter can push? What other possible promoters are there in the future? Has the foundation retweeted it? Did the founder like it? Has the exchange been connected?'

In the Lu Xue version, I am the younger brother, bosses please take care of me.

Doll Sister's monologue is a hit all over the internet, even the top influencer personally liked it. It is highly recommended to read the warm original text. Here, Dave has condensed five must-know doll cultivation secrets. Let's take a look at Doll Sister's success rules:

1. Crisis is also an opportunity, using the false to achieve the real.

The key to the doll's wisdom lies in not resisting the current situation, but in actively shaping the narrative. By transforming personal crises (like liquidation and breakups) into trending topics, successfully utilizing the crisis.
Avoiding the crisis, confronting the crisis, solving the crisis, and leveraging the crisis. Each layer of approach is a new realm, utilizing the crisis, which even resembles a high-level wisdom of not getting lost in duality.

2. Focus + Precision

The doll positions the account as "foolish people with lots of money and high traffic," focusing intently on capturing high-value target customers. This provides significant inspiration for brand shaping; focus is key. The legendary trader @GCR once said: He who chases two rabbits catches neither.

3. Evolution

The doll has evolved from the initial speculation (meme, pre-sale) to investment (DCA holding coins, ETHENA rewards), then optimized for arbitrage and DeFi operations, ultimately returning to speculation by imitating "smart money." Wealth is inseparable from the market, and trading in the capital market is an ever-evolving process.

4. Engage in some "side businesses"

Doll Sister expanded from OF to cryptocurrency and adult products, leveraging a multi-platform traffic pool (such as TikTok, Twitter) to achieve income diversification.
This serves as a reminder for cryptocurrency practitioners, as many in the crypto space easily fall into a limited circle. The distinctions between trading circles, mining circles, and blockchain circles are so clear, let alone matters outside those circles. Diversification is very important.

The top influencer's evaluation of the doll is that the strong never complain about fate. The term 'strong' actually condenses a whole set of three-dimensional qualities. Let go of attachment and continue to evolve.
@HongKongDoll @Yi He $BTC $SOL

Strategy Analysis: BNB Surge Market

1. Current trading strategies that do not discuss market liquidity are just foolishness.

This week's market liquidity is extremely dispersed, resulting in many cryptocurrencies experiencing insufficient liquidity support. Currently, there are three places gathering liquidity: the first is privacy coins, the second is on the BSC chain, and the third is BNB itself. As for Coai Zora, the little dark horse, it does not count as large-scale liquidity.

2. Valuation Dimension: BNB Pump Target

The top ten addresses holding BNB account for over 85%, which definitely counts as high control. What is the purpose of violently pumping this chain? It is to push BNB into a new valuation range. BNB currently wants to maintain a three-digit price and the third market value, benchmarking Ethereum (the first public chain and the first exchange). Therefore, the possible target is 1800-2000+. Generally, the highest price point is 5% to 10% away from the high price, and after reaching the high price, it is generally difficult to stabilize directly and will have to undergo a natural correction, which may range from 30% to 50%. If BNB is to maintain a three-digit price and the third market value, it should at least reach above 1500 for safety; around 1800 to 2000 may be the peak. You can refer to BTC, SOL, and ETH when they broke through valuation ranges; they all went through a sharp surge followed by an inevitable natural correction, but the correction's landing point was already in a new valuation range.

3. Market Dimension: Follow-Up Tactics

This post is titled BNB Surge Market because it has followed a relatively standard three-wave market, and it is currently in the second wave continuation, heading towards the final leg. Purely looking at charts is indeed nonsense; combining some data:
BNB daily line retested the 7-day moving average, momentum exists, and the structure is complete. The market enters high-level turnover, and the final peak will usually experience continuous volume increase followed by a significant drop, with the neck position trading sideways, not oscillating at high levels. TVL: $7.5B → $9.24B. Active addresses: September 73.24M, up 4% in 30 days.

Risks: On October 7, BNB experienced a significant surge and drop, with trading volume 50% higher than usual. This is not a trend reversal signal, but it may mark the imminent end of the trend. The current turnover can still be judged as an upward continuation, but always stay alert; if it becomes too weak, it may turn into a distribution point.
#BNBbull $BNB @Yi He @CZ

avax is still a good business in the long run

1: a16z, Polychain Capital, Dragonfly Capital, Galaxy Digital, ParaFi Capital, Republic Capital, Three Arrows Capital, Morgan Creek Digital, NGC Ventures, etc. 52% with a US background, 12% with a European background, 36% with an Asian background.

2: Planning to raise a total of 1 billion dollars through two transactions to establish two crypto asset treasury companies. One pipe, one SPAC (Mountain Lake Acquisition Corp).

3: Since 25.4, the TVL has grown from $1B to $2.1B, an increase of over 100%. Meanwhile, the active index continues to rise.

However, the price has only increased nearly 50% compared to the opening price in April.

4: The number of active addresses has visibly increased compared to 24 years, averaging over 1 million per month. Application revenue: compared to 24 years, it has generally increased, peaking at $7.49 million in September. However, the overall return rate in 25 years is still negative.

Summary: 1. Institutional coin background is solid, with actual funding expectations subsequently and passing the political review. 2. If it maintains the same premium level as 24 years, it is currently undervalued. 3. The current market cap capacity is appropriate, and there has been no significant increase since 24 years, making it a forgotten player in the corner, which aligns with the taste of large players from a capital operation perspective, passing the transaction review.

Risk: The on-chain revenue of avax has always been unsatisfactory, and from a revenue perspective, it does not look good. It requires the macro market to provide a premium level, along with liquidity space, while having institutional operations, to expect excess gains.

nfi, dyor, LFG. @Avalanche_CN $AVAX