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Alpha FIR has been quite active these past few days, and today I dug into the project background:

Industry: AI + Music, this is one of the narratives currently attracting the most capital attention. FIR has already established a leading position in this vertical field.

The partners include Nobody, who has issued Stephen Chow NFTs, and music projects that collaborate with stars like Kay Tse. This means it has strong IP resources and the ability to break out of niche markets, not just pure speculation.

If it were just a concept coin, it might end quickly with a one-time flow, but FIR has real projects behind it, star resources, and actual collaborations, providing it with long-term support and narrative space.

Recently, the trading volume has significantly increased, and the price shows a phased bottom structure, which usually indicates that there are funds paying attention and positioning.

If contracts can be launched in the future, liquidity and volatility will increase significantly, making it a key target to watch.
#FIR

Brothers, keep an eye on SOL's market, a phase bottom is forming, and there should be no fear at the moment. Although short-term bears still dominate, the market needs time to grind, but key signals have already appeared.

The strength of this decline has clearly weakened, showing multiple resistances where it can't drop further. This is a typical 'bottoming signal'. My personal judgment is that the big direction for this month will be 'pullback - accumulation - rebound'.

Market suggestions:

1. Cautious shorts: Even if the market experiences extreme volatility and hits a new low, the possibility of a trap for shorts is very high. Chasing shorts may lead to being caught before dawn. The current fluctuations can be understood as the short-selling forces taking profits while new bullish forces accumulate quietly. This is a process of transitioning between old and new momentum.

2. For spot traders, the current range is a good time to build positions in batches. Don't always think about buying at the lowest point; instead, accumulate in batches within this bottom area, range position 115-125.

Those with positions can start planning for additional purchases in the current area, while those with no positions can establish a small bottom position in batches.

Remember, markets are always born out of despair. The colder the market sentiment, the more we need to stay clear-headed, prepare well, and wait for the wind to come.
#sol #加密市场回调

The market is in such a bad state that I can only afford crabs like this. The crypto community has a different kind of hardship #加密市场回调

SOL is currently around $126. From a technical structure perspective, bulls have failed to establish effective support, and the overall bearish trend has not yet reversed.

The $130 level is a key resistance level, and as long as the price has not confirmed it can hold above this position, any approach to this area can be considered a reference for gradually positioning for a bearish stance.

Regarding spot positioning, it was discussed last week that around $125 is a potential entry point. For conservative players, it may be advisable to lower the positioning range to between $112 and $120 to seek a higher safety level. All operations should be conducted with strict position management and risk control. The operational strategy remains focused on short-term trades. The last entry was at the $125 position, and the repeated failure to break through the $144 position also indicated an exit, capturing a short-term swing.

#solana

Data for this week:

Tuesday 9:00 Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will speak at a memorial event.

Tuesday 23:00 Federal Reserve Governor Bowman will testify before a House committee.

Wednesday 21:15 U.S. November ADP employment numbers (10,000s).

Thursday 21:30 U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending November 29 (10,000s).

Friday 23:00 U.S. September core PCE price index year-on-year.

Friday 23:00 U.S. December one-year inflation expectations preliminary.

Friday 23:00 U.S. December University of Michigan consumer sentiment index preliminary.

Comments from Federal Reserve officials, especially public statements from Chairman Powell, directly shape market expectations regarding the path of monetary policy. If the stance leans dovish, it will strengthen expectations of maintaining or shifting towards easier liquidity, usually benefiting risk assets like Bitcoin. If it leans hawkish, it will tighten expectations, creating short-term pressure.

ADP employment and initial jobless claims, as high-frequency labor data, reflect economic resilience in real time. Strong data may reinforce the Federal Reserve's stance to maintain high interest rates, suppressing market sentiment. If the data shows significant weakness, it could quickly elevate expectations for rate cuts, often providing upward momentum for crypto assets.

The core PCE price index, as the Federal Reserve's most valued inflation indicator, is a key determinant in policy-making. A number higher than expected will strengthen the narrative of "higher rates for longer," suppressing risk appetite, while meeting or falling below expectations can alleviate tightening concerns, usually supporting asset prices.

Data changes - adjusting Federal Reserve policy expectations - impacting global dollar liquidity outlook - reshaping the valuation logic of global risk assets, including crypto assets.

For retail investors, it is crucial to closely monitor candlestick patterns, macro information, and market sentiment to adjust their strategies, making more rigorous decisions in position management and cycle layout. #美联储重启降息步伐 #加密市场反弹

MicroStrategy's stock has fallen quite harshly in the past six months, with its price already halved. Will it be unable to hold on and face liquidation? If that really happens, will it trigger a chain reaction of explosions?

MicroStrategy's CEO Phong Le (the company's Executive Chairman is Michael Saylor) recently stated quite frankly in an interview that unless the company's stock price falls below its net asset value and they cannot obtain new funding at all, they will not consider selling Bitcoin.

In other words, if MicroStrategy's price-to-net asset ratio (or mNAV) falls below 1 and all financing channels are cut off, then from a financial perspective, selling Bitcoin to protect earnings per share would seem reasonable, especially since there may already be losses on the books at that time.

However, he also emphasized that this is absolutely the last resort and not a shift in company strategy. MicroStrategy has never wanted to become a company that survives by selling Bitcoin; it's just that when market sentiment is particularly poor, financial discipline must come first, and they cannot rely solely on emotions.

MicroStrategy has endured this long in the cryptocurrency space and indeed has its own coping logic. Simply put, their bottom line is that as long as the mNAV does not fall below 1 and they can still borrow money, they will not touch Bitcoin.

So how is the price-to-net asset ratio calculated?

According to the data publicly disclosed by MicroStrategy, they currently hold approximately 649,000 Bitcoins, valued at around $59.2 billion at market price. Although the average cost is $74,000, the current Bitcoin price is even higher, so there is still a profit on the books. The estimated mNAV is around 1.13, which means the stock price is still above the net asset value per share

#加密市场反弹

The crypto market's "black opening" in December raises questions of whether it is a crisis or an opportunity? On the first day of December 2025, the cryptocurrency market delivered a harsh reality check to investors.

Bitcoin fell again below the $90,000 mark, dipping to around $86,000, while Ethereum also lost the critical psychological level of $3,000, plunging to around $2,800. Such a bleak start has driven market sentiment to a freezing point.

The daily level still requires adjustment, with expectations for a rate cut in December resuming, which may lead to further cuts. Attention should be paid to the fundamental situation. The weekly trend remains relatively healthy. For what lies ahead, it is essential to closely follow the Federal Reserve's policy direction, wait for a pullback to rise, and maintain enough ammunition for a charge.
#加密市场反弹

In the current market, while pursuing stability, should mainstream currencies choose ETH or SOL?
Setting aside market trends, Ethereum has never gone offline for over a decade, as steady as a rock, while SOL has faced multiple outages and hacks in 22-23 years. For large funds, speed is not the primary factor; not losing money and being usable at any time is the bottom line.

In terms of ecosystem: Core ecosystems like DeFi, NFT, and DAO are all built on Ethereum, with tens of thousands of projects supporting it, creating a network effect that is hard to shake. Although the SOL ecosystem is catching up rapidly, there is still a gap.

To put it simply, SOL is like a sports car, pursuing extreme speed, but occasionally breaks down. Ethereum is like a heavy aircraft carrier, slow and costly to mobilize, but it is a moving empire, secure and stable, supporting the entire ecosystem.

Therefore, more funds have chosen the more stable ETH, but compared to other altcoins, SOL is still relatively stable, with its own ETF. Recently, the overall funds are in an inflow state, and although there haven't been significant short-term fluctuations, the future market remains polite. For me personally, both ETH and SOL are two relatively good targets.

#solana #ETH

Isn't this just a blatant exploitation? The number of holders is 82,000, how many people exited early, and how many got exploited? This cut is really severe
0xcf16c089cbb219023050a1077a227b9424912440

On November 28, the U.S. SOL spot ETF saw a net inflow of $5.3 million, continuing the recent trend of moderate capital return. Although the inflow scale is not large, institutional funds are still accelerating their focus on mainstream products with low fees and high liquidity.

Specifically, Fidelity's FSOL attracted $2.4 million in a single day, demonstrating its brand advantage in both retail and institutional channels remains strong.

Grayscale's GSOL had a net inflow of $4.3 million, becoming the largest amount of funds on that day. This may be related to Grayscale's historical high holding costs and some investors taking the opportunity to 'top up' or convert shares at lower points.

In contrast, TSOL experienced a net outflow of $1.4 million, further exposing the disadvantages of small and medium issuers in the competition for fees and liquidity.

Overall, the funding situation for the SOL spot ETF has shifted from a significant outflow to a small net inflow. Combined with the recent warming of Solana's DeFi and Meme ecosystem, market sentiment is gradually recovering.

Although the daily inflow of $5.3 million is still at a low level, more incremental funds are needed to significantly push prices higher. However, for SOL, this pullback presents a timely opportunity for us to enter the market. In the short term, a level around 125 can be seen as an entry point.
#solana

Bitcoin's short-term stabilization is above $90,000, with important support currently at the $89,000 level. As long as this support holds, the rebound trend will continue. Currently, the daily chart shows a steady upward trend, and the weekly chart is also slowly rising.

Overall, the market's trend seems to clearly indicate a bullish pattern. If there are no negative impacts from news in the short term, Bitcoin will likely break through the $95,000 price level soon. We'll see if it can surge in the last two days of the month.

Additionally, the expectation for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December is at 85%, which doesn't seem to be a big issue. With a rate cut expected in December, the market should experience a wave of upward movement.
#btc

Is the continuation of a bull market or the beginning of a bear market?

1. Retail investor sentiment is restrained, with no signs of frenzied peaks; the market has yet to experience the 'last madness' of widespread participation, which is one of the key indicators of a bull market peak, indicating that there is still room for new capital entry.

2. Emotions are stable during the pullback, and the consensus remains bullish. Despite price pullbacks, the core strength in the market, including senior players from major communities, still predominantly holds a bullish stance. Panic has not spread, which is fundamentally different from the blind optimism of 'ignoring bad news' at the end of a bull market.

3. Institutions are firmly increasing their holdings, and funds have not withdrawn. Companies like MicroStrategy continue to buy Bitcoin, while funds on exchanges are showing a net outflow, indicating that large capital prefers to accumulate in the long term rather than cashing out for profits. This 'only entering, not exiting' institutional behavior provides solid underlying support for the market.

In summary, aside from short-term price fluctuations, the market has not signaled the end of the bull market. The new round of market trends from December this year to January next year is still worth looking forward to.

#加密市场反弹 #加密市场观察

Former White House economic advisor Hassett has suddenly become the hottest candidate for the new chairman of the Federal Reserve, with the probability rapidly rising from 14.2% to 35%, an increase of 146%. This is not just an ordinary personnel change, but could be a significant signal of a market turning point.

As a clear representative of the dovish camp, Hassett advocates actively promoting interest rate cuts, and this tendency undoubtedly brings strong positive expectations to the crypto market.

What does an interest rate cut mean?

It means more funds will enter the market, increasing market liquidity and addressing the current liquidity exhaustion issue.

If Hassett ultimately takes the helm of the Federal Reserve, the crypto market may usher in a new round of a "frenzied bull market."

How should investors respond?

It is recommended to maintain existing positions in mainstream coins, avoid frequent trading, be patient, and follow the market trend.
#美联储重启降息步伐

In the short term, there is indeed some pressure around 144, and this position has been repeatedly tested without breaking. Spot short-term players who entered at 125 can take a wave out for now, and then buy back when it pulls back #sol .

Sol is often called one of the 'Ethereum killers' by many, and many believe it has the potential to replace Ethereum. So what are the differences between the two in terms of ecosystem? Today, I will briefly discuss a few key points.

1. Different core technologies

The biggest highlight of Solana is 'Proof of History' (PoH), which you can think of as a 'cryptographic clock'. A timestamp is assigned whenever a transaction occurs, allowing nodes across the network to confirm the order of transactions without the need for communication.

Ethereum previously used Proof of Work (PoW) and has now transitioned to Proof of Stake (PoS), where validating nodes need to spend time communicating with each other to reach a consensus on transaction order. Solana eliminates this 'debate over order' time with PoH, resulting in particularly fast network speeds.

2. Different design philosophies

Solana follows a 'single-chain' approach, aiming to make the main network (Layer 1) extremely robust, handling all transactions, settlements, and data at this level without heavily relying on Layer 2 scaling.

Ethereum adopts a 'modular' approach, where the main network is primarily responsible for security and settlement, delegating the task of executing transactions to Layer 2 (such as Arbitrum, Optimism, etc.).

Transaction processing methods

The virtual machine (EVM) of ETH is 'single-threaded', like a bank with only one window, processing transactions one by one in order.

Solana, on the other hand, has developed a technology called Sealevel, which allows for 'parallel processing' of smart contracts—if several transactions are unrelated, they can be processed simultaneously, akin to having multiple windows handling business at the same time, significantly increasing efficiency.
#sol #ETH

A certain whale withdrew 49,165 SOL (worth 7 million USD) from OKX and used it for staking.

From this action, I personally believe the whale is extremely optimistic about the mid to long-term value of Solana, willing to place heavy bets, binding deeply with both financial and time costs, and boosting the overall staking rate through large and continuous staking, while locking in higher staking annualized returns for themselves (the current native staking APY is about 6.5%-7.5%).

Increasing positions during a period of low market sentiment, when the direction has not yet fully emerged, indicates a very clear intention, which is a strong affirmation of Solana's mid to long-term value.

However, returning to ourselves, we still need to recognize our true situation, not follow blindly, and combine our own accounts to create investment strategies that suit ourselves.

#solana

Today the market has rebounded slightly overall, which can be considered a relatively good day recently. Regarding the current market situation, I still maintain a cautious attitude. A real reversal requires the injection of funds. As mentioned in the article, we shouldn't lose sight of the bigger picture because of minor losses.

The current market is completely different; we must always be aware of risks. For the two targets, SOL and OKB, as of now, one has a space of 15 points and the other has a space of 13 points. In the future, the mainstream market will still experience a bottom-testing action, so everyone should proceed with caution! #OKB #sol

Speaking of Solana ETF, by November 2025, there have already been 6 listed, such as Bitwise's BSOL and Grayscale's GSOL.

Among them, Bitwise's BSOL is the most aggressive; it not only allows you to invest in SOL but also has a new twist called 'staking'. In simple terms, it helps you take your held SOL and put it on-chain to 'earn interest', then shares this part of the income with you.

This move is quite bold because the MG Securities Regulatory Commission has always felt that this type of 'staking' is very similar to issuing securities and is heavily regulated. However, Bitwise explicitly states in its documents that it is a 'Staking ETF', aiming to carve out a compliant path.

If it really succeeds, buying Solana ETF will not only allow you to profit from price increases but also provide cash flow like receiving dividends, which is much more attractive than Bitcoin ETFs.

Another breakthrough is that Solana actually does not meet a hard requirement that the SEC has previously set for approving ETFs, which is having futures trading on the CME. However, this time the regulators still allowed it, likely because they believe that trading data from regulated exchanges like Coinbase is already reliable enough.

After the listing of the Solana ETF, it became very popular, with net inflows for 20 consecutive days, raising a total of $568 million. Even more impressive is that in November, while Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs were experiencing significant losses, the Solana ETF managed to attract capital against the trend.

By the end of November, the total scale of these 6 funds had reached $843 million. This indicates that institutional funds are engaging in 'asset rotation', coming out of the already heated Bitcoin to seek new targets with greater potential and faster growth, like Solana.
#SOL

The current price of Dogecoin is approximately $0.148, remaining in a narrow fluctuation range of $0.14-$0.15. The trading volume is about $2 billion, and market sentiment has been boosted by the official launch of the Grayscale DOGE ETF (GDOG) on the NYSE. Meanwhile, the rumored closure of the "Department of Government Efficiency" (DOGE Department), promoted by Elon Musk, has not significantly suppressed the price but has instead sparked optimistic discussions within the community.

In the short term, DOGE has rebound potential, driven mainly by: ETF Effect: With the launch of the Grayscale GDOG ETF, expectations for institutional capital inflow have increased, which may push the price to break through the resistance level of $0.15.

Technical Indicators: The RSI is in the neutral zone (around 48), and the MACD histogram shows bullish signals; the price is holding above the support level of $0.1427-$0.144, forming a descending wedge and an EMA compression pattern, suggesting a potential breakout.

As a representative of meme coins, DOGE's trend is highly dependent on community narratives, celebrity endorsements, and broader cryptocurrency adoption. By the end of 2025, ETF approvals and payment integrations (such as Twitter/X payments) will support its growth.

#DOGE

The MG Ministry of Finance announced the repurchase of $750 million in government bonds, an action akin to a stone thrown into the market, swiftly triggering ripples that further amplified market speculation about the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts.

The core logic of debt repurchase lies in reducing the supply of government bonds in circulation. When the Ministry of Finance buys back maturing or low-liquidity bonds from the secondary market, it is equivalent to directly injecting liquidity, alleviating market pressures from a high-interest rate environment. Data shows that this repurchase targets short-term TIPS (Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities) with an operation scale of $750 million, coinciding with the 10-year Treasury yield dropping to around 4.2%.

This action of "reducing supply" is seen as a tacit cooperation between fiscal and monetary policy. The Ministry of Finance "loosens" the market through repurchase, while the Federal Reserve may seize the opportunity to accelerate interest rate cuts to stimulate economic growth. The impact on predictions of Federal Reserve rate cuts is particularly significant, as the market had originally assigned an 85% probability to a 25 basis point rate cut at the December FOMC meeting.

In summary, although the MG Ministry of Finance's $750 million debt repurchase is limited in scale, it has accelerated rate cut expectations like a catalyst #美联储重启降息步伐 .