Web3老吴丨

兄弟们，点击加入币安财富密码群

Brothers who want to communicate with me privately can: Click the top left corner of the APP "Messages" → Chat → Top right corner to add friends, enter: 298428472 to add Lao Wu as a friend on Binance. #币安KOL #币安好友 #币安交流群

I looked at the Web3 industry's donations for the Hong Kong fire incident.
I summarize the following points:

1. Rapid response, large amounts, demonstrating industry maturity.
The list includes various core participants from the Web3 ecosystem, such as exchanges, capital, project parties, and industry associations. After the disaster occurred, they were able to coordinate quickly and raised over 130 million Hong Kong dollars in a short period, proving that the Web3 industry has become an undeniable force in real life.

2. Leading institutions set industry benchmarks.
Top global exchanges like Binance, Gate, HTX, Bitget, and compliant pioneers like HashKey have all donated tens of millions, playing a strong leading role. This indicates that leading enterprises in the industry have deeply integrated ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance) and public welfare into their development strategies, actively assuming social responsibilities that match their economic strength.

3. Beyond regional boundaries, showcasing global vision and local care.
Web3 is fundamentally global, but these institutions are focusing on the local disaster in Hong Kong this time, reflecting the warmth of “technology for good.” They are not only concerned with distant, conceptual grand narratives, but can also delve into communities and care about the suffering of specific individuals. This model of “global resources, local care” greatly enhances the industry’s social image and public goodwill.

4. Reshaping industry image, earning trust through action.
For a long time, the Web3 industry has been controversial due to its high volatility and regulatory uncertainties. This collective public welfare action is a powerful “renaming” for the industry and conveys a clear message to mainstream society: Web3 is not just about financial speculation and technological innovation; it is also about building a warmer and more responsible social ecology. This is an excellent example of establishing trust and breaking prejudice through real money and concrete actions.

I believe this donation list is far more than just a string of numbers. It is a landmark event that signifies the Web3 industry has matured into a responsible social force capable of rapidly transforming digital wealth into real-world warmth. I sincerely wish all affected people safety and a swift return to normal life. #香港大火 #香港稳定币新规

#XPL Does this trend make you brothers tempted to bottom out?

The fact is that the project party has trapped a large number of investors on board

None of the short-term bottom fishers are making money; once you enter, you're stuck

The project party has been continuously dumping

There may be a tempting market trend in the future

Unrestrained decline is the norm; buying is at the peak

It's best to stay away from this kind of coin as soon as possible! #加密市场反弹 #香港稳定币新规

Is the current rise a reversal or a rebound?

The market has broken through a level and has fallen into a range of fluctuations.
Many people are asking if this rebound has reached its bottom?
This rebound definitely has not reached its bottom; those who read my article this morning will know that I see this rebound going above 100,000.
However, I still believe that the current market movement is merely a rebound, and the overall trend has not reversed.
Why do I say this? I have summarized two points.

1. The current rise lacks the robust, stepwise increase and strong support bounce that a healthy bull market should have; it is merely a technical correction and short covering after an oversell, and the market's self-repair strength is also very weak. This wave has also been propelled back above 9,000 due to the increased probability of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.

2. The market has broken through the historical high of 125,000 several times. Normally, this would attract even more massive FOMO funds to pour in; it should not continuously tumble to give retail investors a chance to enter. Yet this year's multiple breakthroughs to new highs have immediately resulted in significant waterfalls, which is a signal of the exhaustion of bullish momentum.

Based on these two points, I believe that the possibility of the current market continuing to break new highs has already vanished. The overall market rhythm is one of breakthrough, consolidation, and bearish decline. In terms of operations, it is better to wait for relatively clear signals before acting; blindly rushing in is tantamount to giving away money.

The market has entered a slow-paced phase
Let me tell you about the current market trends
The current market is stuck in a position mainly based on three reasons
1. The US stock market is closed, causing the major index to decouple from its linkage
2. The current market sentiment has reached a bottleneck for a rebound; to continue rising higher, we need positive news to drive it forward, but currently, there are no good news in sight.
3. The current long-short ratio is unbalanced, with a large number of long positions making it difficult for the market to break through; the main players might be holding back to wait for an opportunity to trigger short positions.
The major index has already risen over 10,000 points this time, and the next phase will be a breakout trend in the 91,000-100,000 range. Based on the current market situation, the opportunity for this breakout in this range will depend on the probability of a rate cut being confirmed or implemented in December. Prior to that, the 88,000-95,000 range is a very good area for consolidation; many may have missed the opportunity to buy around 81,000. In the short term, I believe there will be another pullback to 89,000, which is a chance to enter the market in batches. The rebound and correction will undoubtedly have many twists and turns, and what we need is more patience. #币安HODLer空投AT #加密市场反弹

Everything goes according to the script, the brothers with long positions are comfortable.
Next, #BTC will break through the position of 93000 and start to pull back, #ETH also has a chance to touch the position of 3200. Brothers with short positions at the bottom are advised to find opportunities to stop losses or hedge, continuing to hold positions is extremely risky. #加密市场反弹 #美国非农数据超预期

In the past few days, the market has been fluctuating up and down. Many brothers with contracts still hanging on the tree are asking me whether the market can drop further or rise again. Here, I want to share some of my market views with the brothers.

#BTC In recent days, the main fluctuation has been in the range of 95000-99000. The short-term upward breakthrough direction depends on the outcome of the battle for 88,000 dollars. The current market is in a "stage of exhausted downward momentum but insufficient rebound consensus."

So far, there has been no effective breakthrough of the previous fluctuation range. The possibility of directly starting a second test to challenge the 80000 mark at this position is very low, as it has been driven up with real money. Unless the Federal Reserve clearly states that there will be no interest rate cuts in December.

However, the current situation of the Federal Reserve is that they want to play both sides, possibly not wanting to cut interest rates but still constantly giving the market hopes for rate cuts. They might cut rates but do not want to announce this news too quickly.

But based on my personal view of the Federal Reserve's tendencies, the Federal Reserve is currently under significant pressure. The Fed Chair is also facing a transition, and Powell wants to perform well in his last term. It is highly likely that they will not be too aggressive, so the probability of rate cuts is high. If Bitcoin dips below 83000 again, the probability of hitting a bottom in the short term is very low. This time around 80600 will likely be the bottom of this wave.

In the upcoming market, Bitcoin breaking above 90000 and Ethereum returning to around 3050 shouldn't face much pressure. However, after the Thanksgiving market closure, whether the market can rally will depend on whether there is buying interest. This timing could also be a risk point for another market washout. However, I believe the probability of a market crash is relatively small. The main theme is still a rebound and recovery. If it can return above 90000, the market sentiment will be greatly alleviated, especially since there are still a large number of short positions below 82000, and the market will not easily give opportunities for them to break even. #加密市场反弹 #美国非农数据超预期

Market linkage led to a significant rise in U.S. stocks, resulting in a comprehensive rebound. However, after the U.S. stock market closed, the trend began to decline sharply, indicating that the short-term capital support is still relatively weak, and the willingness to realize profits is strong. This is still based on the uncertainty regarding interest rate cuts. The capital for bottom-fishing is becoming increasingly cautious. The current market is trapped in a fluctuating trend, and the trend has not reversed. Therefore, there is no need to rush to blindly chase high prices to build positions. Continue to wait for opportunities to build positions on pullbacks. There are many opportunities in the market, but the principal is limited. Do not operate recklessly until the trend is in place. #加密市场回调 #比特币波动性 #BTC

The Federal Reserve's internal stance on interest rate cuts is currently at an impasse, with a support-to-opposition ratio of about 4:5. Market expectations for a pause in rate cuts in December continue to rise. At this critical moment, Powell has chosen an unusual silence.

Currently, the Federal Reserve is facing an awkward situation: on one hand, the market urgently needs clear policy guidance, while on the other hand, there has been a rare divergence of opinions within the committee in recent years. Powell's vote on the December rate cut is crucial for the FOMC; however, given the current situation, Powell does not support the rate cut. It remains to be seen whether a turning point will emerge in the coming week.

Powell's "stubbornness" is essentially a gamble about "confidence" and "risk."

He is betting that, supported by the currently strong labor market, the U.S. economy can withstand a longer period of high interest rates without falling into recession. This is a narrow path to a "soft landing."

What he fears is that the specter of inflation will return, which would completely destroy the Federal Reserve's credibility and could lead to an economic hard landing.

Especially since he will be stepping down next year, he would not want to tarnish his legacy. Based on the situation of the Federal Reserve just last week, I believe there is a high probability of a rate cut, as the current Federal Reserve is indeed quite anxious. #美国非农数据超预期 #鲍威尔发言

Brother Ma Ji still won't give up, he has to continue being educated! #比特币波动性 #ETH

#BTC 88k is not the bottom, 75k is the price that the giant whale marked as the buying position

1. URPD (On-chain Cost Distribution)
53k–70k: Huge Position Cost Concentration Area → Strong Support
74k–90k: Almost no positions → Vacuum Area (No Support)
>90k: Large Locked Positions → Strong Resistance
Once the price falls into the 74k–90k vacuum area, it will quickly drop because there is no support from chips.
2. Hyperliquid Short Giant Whale Behavior
Multiple giants opened large short positions ($10k–$11.3k) (40 million–100 million level)
Floating profit +200% ~ +600%, and positions remain open, continuing to earn funding rates
This indicates that this is a planned structural short, not retail panic selling.
3. The giant whale has placed a buy order for 1450 BTC at $75k–$79.9k
Split into orders of 200, 350, 500 BTC, etc.
The position is exactly at the lower edge of the URPD vacuum area + upper edge of the support area
This is clearly marked as the 'buying range'
Currently, it seems that the 80k level is unlikely to hold, a spike to 75k with a rebound might be more reasonable #比特币波动性 #美股2026预测 #特朗普取消农产品关税

The fact is that #BTC really peaked at 126000, with a continuous decline and false rallies causing a large number of people to keep getting in. Now the minute line of Bitcoin has also played out a similar trend as the imitation coins. The market hasn't hit the bottom yet, be cautious about bottom-fishing, and continue watching the show! #比特币波动性 #加密市场回调

After a delay of 43 days, tonight's non-farm payroll has become the final key to whether interest rates will be cut in December. Over the past month, market expectations have undergone a dramatic turn — the probability of a rate cut in December has fallen from over 90% at the beginning of October to currently less than 30%.

Due to the cancellation of the October report and the postponement of the November report until after the FOMC meeting, the September data has become the only official employment report available for the Federal Reserve to reference before the December meeting. It is difficult for the Federal Reserve to ignore this result in the absence of data support. If the September data shows weakness, the decision-makers are likely to infer that October has not improved either.

Currently, the market expects an increase of 50,000 jobs and an unemployment rate of 4.3%. The ideal situation is that the data does not deviate too far from expectations — too few jobs could raise concerns about a recession, while too many would further suppress the possibility of a rate cut. At the same time, it is best that the data for July and August does not undergo significant downward revisions; the currently fragile market needs stability the most.

Due to the reduction in immigration and the impact of AI replacement, the number of new jobs needed to maintain employment balance has decreased from 150,000 to 30,000-50,000. This means that even if the data shows only +40,000, which in the past may have signaled a recession, it could now be seen as the 'new normal.'

Given that expectations are already very low (only 50,000), a figure slightly higher than this (for example, 80,000) could be viewed as 'positive', but it cannot be so good as to extinguish hopes for a rate cut. Therefore, if the data falls between 50,000-70,000, the market might instead experience a rebound from the 'bad news has been fully priced in.'

To maintain market stability, ideal data would be 30,000-70,000 jobs and an unemployment rate below 4.4%. If the number of jobs is <20,000, it will first trigger panic about a recession, and the probability of a rate cut in December may rebound to 70%, with the market possibly falling before rising.

If >80,000, the probability of a rate cut in December will essentially drop to zero, and the market may face a 'final drop' #美股2026预测 #美联储重启降息步伐 #加密市场回调 #BTC

Watching the trend of #BTC today, tonight's non-farm data is likely to be positive. This morning's rally has already digested the expectations of positive data tonight. However, the cancellation of the release of October's employment data has intensified the uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts. The positive data trend should first spike upwards, then drop down, and continue to oscillate downwards to retest 90000#鲍威尔发言 .

Some issues with the declining exchange have been exposed
This situation should still be an internal company issue
It should be impossible not to pay salaries
Even the worst exchange cannot avoid making profits
Choosing a stable and compliant exchange is very important
With the backing of the world's largest exchange, you can trade with confidence @Yi He #美股2026预测 #加密市场回调