老谭说趋势

$ETH Perfect Completion

Tonight's market isn't too gloomy

Guys, get some rest early!

Stay true to your original intention

We'll fight again tomorrow!!!

#ETH重回4700美元

Daily focus: eth, sol, bnb, btc, xrp

XRP is consolidating today, waiting for an explosion, with multiple positive catalysts imminent!

Today is September 18, 2025, and the XRP/USDT perpetual contract's five-minute candlestick chart is extremely dull, opening at 3.1061 and closing at 3.1063, with an amplitude of only 0.10%. The price is compressed within a narrow range between the upper and middle Bollinger Bands, with both bulls and bears on the sidelines, clearly waiting for significant news to drop.

1. Divergence between technical and news aspects

From a technical perspective, the MACD double lines are almost fused, with a slightly negative histogram, and short-term momentum is weak. Key resistance is at 3.1112 and 3.1200, while support is at 3.0800 and 2.9800. However, this consolidation feels more like the calm before the storm—America's first XRP ETF is officially launched. Although it is not a pure spot ETF structurally, it is still a significant breakthrough for traditional financial channels. Additionally, CME plans to launch XRP futures options on October 13, which will further attract institutional funds into the market.

2. Dual drive from ecology and policy

Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse directly stated today that the approval of the XRP ETF is “inevitable,” and it is expected that the SEC will approve some applications by the end of the year, even predicting that XRP might become part of the U.S. government's crypto reserves. Meanwhile, the XRP ecosystem is active, with the BXE token of the Bank Change project recently surging threefold, driven by on-chain innovation and institutional demand.

3. Short-term trend prediction

I personally believe that if the capital inflow after the ETF launch meets expectations, XRP is likely to break through the previous high of 3.66 and target the 3.80-4.00 range. However, if the ETF performance falls short of expectations, it may retrace to the 3.0000 integer level. Now, don’t get fooled by the consolidation; leveraged players should pay attention to risk control, and holding spot is advisable.

#美联储重启降息步伐

Feeling confused? Can't find a way out?? Comment to get support from a top-tier team.
I am Lao Tan, supported by a top-tier team; only those who resonate at the same frequency can gather together!

The trend of SOL today is simply playing with a wooden dummy!\n\nOpening at 246.9, it fluctuated all day, finally settling at 246.55, not even earning enough for a cup of milk tea. But don’t worry, the real drama is hidden in the data——\n\n17 listed companies secretly hoarded more than 17 million SOL! One company directly bought 1.6 billion dollars worth. The big shots are scrambling for chips like crazy during Double Eleven shopping for cosmetics. What’s even more amazing is that 66.9% of SOL on the entire network is locked up. They want to dump but have no chips. This operation is too ruthless!\n\nWhy are institutions so crazy? A former Goldman Sachs executive directly said the potential of SOL is invincible. Wall Street capital is collectively rushing in to lay out their strategies. On-chain data confirms: exchange inventories decrease every day, and large withdrawals just won’t stop.\n\nShort-term pressure looks at 250 dollars. Once it breaks through, it can easily take off. But down at 230 dollars, there is strong support. If it drops, there will be people bottom-fishing. We just need to hold our spot market well; there’s no need to join the frenzy for contracts.~\n\nThe longer it consolidates, the stronger the subsequent explosion. Seeing 1250 dollars on a weekly level is not a dream! Remember to like and save, and let’s verify when the market suddenly changes back.\n\n#美联储重启降息步伐 \n\nFeeling lost? Can’t find a way out?? Comment to get support from a top-tier team.\nI am Lao Tan, supported by a top-tier team. Only those who resonate on the same frequency can gather together!

Countdown to the Federal Reserve's Rate Cut! The 'Heartbeat' of the Crypto Market has Accelerated

Every rate cut by the Federal Reserve is like a stone thrown into the lake of the crypto market, stirring up ripples—changing the flow of funds, intensifying market fluctuations, and bringing opportunities and risks hand in hand. Now, the market has focused its attention on October, betting that the Federal Reserve will begin the rate cut curtain.

After Powell's speech in the early hours of September 18, major institutions on Wall Street have 'shifted their guns.' Morgan Stanley believes that Powell did not dispel the speculation of a rate cut in October and continues to be bearish on the dollar while bullish on easing; Nomura Securities has made a significant turnaround, changing from previously expecting no rate cut in October to 'a 25 basis point cut in both October and December'; 'New Bond King' Gundlach stated that a 25 basis point cut is reasonable and there will be another one in October; China International Capital Corporation and CITIC Securities are also betting on the rate cut in October, with CITIC Securities' view aligning with Nomura Securities.

A rate cut is a 'double-edged sword' for the crypto market. In the short term, a rate cut means lower dollar costs, and funds from the traditional market may flow out, with some flowing into mainstream cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum, which are considered 'high-risk, high-return' assets, driving their prices up. It's like injecting a dose of 'stimulant' into the crypto market, stimulating upward market trends.

However, there are long-term hidden dangers. The 'higher threshold for rate cuts' mentioned by China International Capital Corporation cannot be ignored. If the pace of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve slows down, or if it pauses rate cuts in the future, the market may worry about 'easing expectations falling through.' Once this worry spreads, the crypto market may face a correction, like a high-speed train suddenly braking, inevitably causing turbulence.

In addition, there is a hidden logic. Institutions collectively betting on rate cuts are essentially gambling that 'the U.S. economy cannot withstand high interest rates and needs rate cuts to stimulate it.' But the worse the economic situation, the stricter the regulations may become. This is like a 'Sword of Damocles' hanging over the crypto market, which could fall at any time, bringing uncertainty to the market.

The Federal Reserve's rate cut is just the first domino in a chain reaction, and the crypto market will face many changes thereafter. Will it seize the opportunity to take advantage or avoid risks and proceed with caution?

#山寨季将至？

Breaking News! DOGE/XRP Spot ETF Debuts Tonight, Is a New Wealth Opportunity in the Crypto World Coming?

While the crypto community is still anxiously waiting for Bitcoin ETF approval, new players have quickly paved the way for spot ETFs through the "40 Act"! Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas revealed that on September 19, the DOGE and XRP Spot ETF issued by REX - Osprey officially launched. Not only that, the Trump-themed coin TRUMP and meme coin BONK's ETFs have also been submitted for registration, though no specific dates have been set, it is clear they are replicating successful paths.

Why is it called a "fast track"? In the past, Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs had to go through a lengthy and strict approval process by the SEC, akin to "passing five levels and slaying six generals." This time, REX - Osprey applied the 1940 Investment Company Act, equipping the ETF with a "compliance accelerator." Funds are held by an independent third party, eliminating the risk of running away; fund companies are required to regularly disclose holdings and operational details, ensuring transparency; the SEC has a high acceptance of this old regulation, significantly improving approval efficiency.

DOGE and XRP are both top players in the crypto space, and the significance of this ETF launch is immense. Traditional funds can invest directly like buying stocks, retail investors don’t have to mess around with wallet transfers, and institutions need not worry about compliance risks. It is expected that on the first day of trading, the transaction volume will surge into the top three on the crypto hot search list, and market sentiment will be completely ignited.

However, investors also need to be wary of risks. In the short term, the ETF launch is a major positive, but the pattern of "buying expectations and selling facts" may be played out. Referring to the trend after the Bitcoin ETF launch, DOGE and XRP may first spike and then pull back, so it is recommended to build positions in batches to avoid chasing highs and cutting losses.

The frequent use of the 40 Act indicates that the SEC is exploring a balance point for "compliance innovation." If the ETFs for TRUMP and BONK pass smoothly, more altcoin ETFs may emerge in the future, but regulators will prioritize releasing those with large market caps and fewer controversies.

For investors, aggressive ones can take a 10% position in advance to bet on DOGE/XRP, taking some profits when it spikes on launch day; conservative ones should wait to observe for 1 - 2 weeks after the launch, buying in batches when the price pulls back to support levels; newbies should be cautious, as the volatility in the crypto market is 3 - 5 times that of the stock market, and they must invest with spare money.

From the "difficult breakthrough" of the Bitcoin ETF to the "fast track" of DOGE/XRP, the integration of traditional finance and the crypto world has become irreversible. Those who can foresee trends will seize the next wave of wealth opportunities.

#BNB突破1000

In the frenzy of retail investors, hidden whales watch coldly and three "fatal thunder"

Recently, the cryptocurrency market has seen Pump shine brightly. Over the past three weeks, it has soared with an increase of over 209%, easily achieving more than three times growth, and has become the most liquid token on the Sol chain, with a liquidity pool reaching 26 million dollars. The total trading volume on the Sol chain in 24 hours is 8 billion dollars, with Pump accounting for 5.8 billion, its importance in the Sol chain ecosystem is increasing day by day, like a rising star.

However, Pump was not so dazzling from the beginning. It adheres to the principle of "fair launch", with no pre-mining and no team reservation, and the token is fully distributed by the market. However, the token launch was delayed, and there were dilution issues, with an initial issuance of 430 billion tokens, and it will further increase to 1 trillion tokens in the future. The news of "future unlocking" looms like a cloud, causing its price to lag behind Sol by 70%, going through ups and downs.

From the holding addresses, there are 93,000 addresses holding Pump, and the number is rising rapidly. However, in-depth analysis shows that the number of small retail investors holding about 1,000 dollars worth of tokens has reached a new high, while the growth of medium and large investors is slow, and the number of whales has hardly changed. This indicates that recent buying pressure mainly comes from retail investors and medium-large investors "charging ahead", while whales are calmly watching. It can be seen that the current price increase is driven more by sentiment and stories, lacking solid financial consensus.

To boost the market, the Pump team has launched a buyback plan, having repurchased Pump worth 100 million dollars. However, Pump's total market value is nearly 3 billion dollars, which is nearly 10 times the TVL, so the impact of the buyback amount relative to the market value is limited. Worse still, the perpetual contract market is active with leveraged trading, with the open interest exceeding 1 billion dollars. Leveraged funds come and go like the wind, and when sentiment shifts, it may trigger a rapid price drop.

Pump faces three major risks in the future. First, the unlocking of tokens will bring huge selling pressure; second, being deeply bound to the Sol ecosystem, they rise and fall together, if Sol weakens, Pump will also have a hard time escaping; third, high leverage leads to high volatility, and when funds withdraw, prices may quickly pull back.

#美联储重启降息步伐

Blindly going solo will never bring opportunities; pay attention to Lao Tan, I will guide you to explore tenfold potential coins! Top-tier primary resources!

9.18 Alert! Ethereum may face a historic surge, emergency layout window opens

Today, the cryptocurrency market is turbulent, and Ethereum is standing at a critical juncture for a surge. A significant investment opportunity has arrived, and keen investors have begun to quietly position themselves!

1. Positive storm approaches, foundation for surge solidified

Currently, Ethereum's price is $4598.16, with a 24-hour increase of 1.91% and a trading volume of $1.479 billion. However, the real market situation has just begun to unfold. This morning at 8:28, Ethereum founder Vitalik Buterin emphasized the importance of the staking mechanism for network security, and this authoritative statement injected strong confidence into the market, greatly enhancing investors' confidence in Ethereum's long-term value.

The U.S. SEC accelerated the approval of the crypto ETP universal standard on September 17, significantly shortening the approval time to 75 days. This favorable policy has opened the floodgates for institutional funds to flow into the cryptocurrency market. As the industry leader, Ethereum will undoubtedly attract a large influx of funds, providing strong momentum for price increases.

At the same time, news of a possible interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in October also brings positive effects to the market. Although inflation has limited the space for rate cuts, the loose monetary policy environment still favors risk assets, and Ethereum is expected to leverage this tailwind for a price breakout.

2. Technical analysis and market sentiment resonate, uptrend poised to launch

Technical analysis shows that after Ethereum reached a high of $4767.97 on September 13, it has been consolidating in the $4400 - $4600 range. The solid support is at $4200 and $3760, while the key resistance levels are at $4700 and $5000. Once broken, the upward space will be significantly opened.

In terms of market sentiment indicators, the Fear and Greed Index is at 52, indicating a neutral state, showing that market sentiment has returned from overheating to rationality, accumulating sufficient energy for future rises. Data from the contract market is also very optimistic, with long positions accounting for as much as 82.96%, funding rates remaining positive, and total open interest exceeding 1.1 million ETH, valued at over $5 billion, indicating that professional investors are confident in Ethereum's future.

#美国讨论BTC战略储备

Currently, the market is turbulent, and walking alone is lonely. Follow Lao Tan for daily spot potential layouts and bull market strategy layouts.

9.18 Morning Cryptocurrency Market:

In the waves of the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin has recently shown a strong upward momentum, with intentions to rise very apparent, as bullish forces once held the upper hand. However, in the early hours of today, the market took a sudden turn, and after Bitcoin surged to around 116900, the upward momentum sharply diminished, as if it had hit an invisible wall, failing before the key resistance level of 117000, making the pressure from above quite evident.

From a technical analysis perspective, 117000 is a resistance level of significant importance. It is not only an important pressure area from the previous market but also a critical dividing line in the strength comparison between bulls and bears. Currently, with Bitcoin facing resistance here, it indicates that bearish forces are starting to assert themselves, attempting to stop the price from rising further. If the price cannot effectively break through and stabilize at this resistance level, there is a high probability that the market will face pressure and fall back, seeking support at lower support levels.

However, the market is always full of uncertainties. If Bitcoin can rely on strong bullish momentum to break through 117000 and stabilize, then the market will welcome a new turning point, and the upward potential will be greatly opened. At that time, going long in line with the trend will undoubtedly capture a wave of substantial profits.

Based on the current market situation, the following operational suggestions are given:

Bitcoin: Given that it is currently facing resistance near 117000, one can establish short positions in the range of 116700 - 117000 at the current price, targeting 115000. This range is the "front line" of the bullish assault, and shorting here aligns with the current trend of the market facing pressure and falling back. However, it is crucial to closely monitor market changes; if the price breaks through 117000 and stabilizes, one should decisively cut losses and go long.

Ethereum: Ethereum is closely tied to Bitcoin's movements, and under the pressure faced by Bitcoin, Ethereum is also unlikely to stand alone. One can short near 4580 - 4600, setting the target at 4400. Similarly, always pay attention to market dynamics and adjust strategies in a timely manner based on market changes.

Investing in the cryptocurrency market is like sailing in a turbulent sea; it requires keen market insight and decisive decision-making skills. Until the market clarifies, we must remain cautious, control positions reasonably, and set proper stop-loss and take-profit levels to cope with market uncertainties.

#BNB挑战1000大关

Cryptocurrency insights, follow Lao Tan to learn more. Deployment of potential coins in a bull market and daily spot strategy sharing!

No matter how your Federal Reserve results

It won't stop my party from Dan

Brothers, continue tomorrow

Thank you for your trust!

#美联储重启降息步伐

Family, did you make a big profit from this market trend? 😂

#美联储降息预期升温

Don't be misled by market noise! Before the interest rate cut, Bitcoin may face a "bloodbath".

Powell's speech on September 17 will become an important turning point in the financial markets this autumn, and a key test for crypto investors.

Many people simply believe that interest rate cuts equal a surge in Bitcoin, which is an extremely dangerous perception. Although in the long run, interest rate cuts are indeed beneficial for the crypto market: liquidity increases, capital inflows, and a bull market can be expected. But in the short term, it is more likely to play out as "the good news has already been priced in, leading to bad news."

Why? Interest rate cuts often signal economic concerns, triggering market panic. Large funds often take the opportunity to sell off and harvest retail investors, leading to a sharp tightening of liquidity. A short-term strengthening of the dollar can also suppress risk assets.

The crypto market has shown signs of overheating. I predict two possible trends: a rebound after a pullback to $104,000 or a sharp drop to $92,000 followed by a violent surge. Whichever occurs, it will ultimately trigger the last wave of a bull market explosion.

Looking back at March 2020, after the Federal Reserve cut interest rates, Bitcoin actually halved, but that was just a washout before the surge. In the following six months, Bitcoin not only broke through previous highs but also surged to $64,000, driving altcoins to soar collectively.

Important reminder: Don't expect a surge immediately after news. The first wave is often panic selling, and the second wave is the real opportunity. Avoid high leverage, keep funds flexible, and be greedy when others are fearful. History does not repeat itself, but it always carries similar rhythms.

#美联储降息预期升温

Currently, the market is tumultuous, and walking alone is lonely. Follow Lao Tan for daily spot potential layouts and bull market strategy layouts.

Today's ETH is completely in a favorable situation

I believe friends who watched the morning express

are also reaping the rewards!

Without further ado, here are the facts

Still the same saying, leave the professional matters to me

You just need to fasten your seatbelt!

#美联储降息预期升温

Stop working hard blindly! Master these 3 tricks, and doubling your efficiency is not a dream

Do you often have such confusion: clearly busy every day to the point of dizziness, but the work and study tasks are always unfinished; staying up late and working overtime, but the results are meager. In fact, it's not that you are not working hard enough, but that the direction and method of your efforts are problematic. Master the following 3 key techniques to make your efforts yield twice the result with half the effort.

1. Clarify your goals and refuse to be blind

Many people do not have clear goals when doing things, like headless flies bumping around. For example, when learning a new language, if you just vaguely say, "I want to learn well," without specific standards, you are likely to give up halfway. The correct approach is to set quantifiable goals, such as "master 500 common vocabulary words within three months and be able to have simple daily conversations." With a clear direction, your actions will have guidance, and every step will move towards the goal, avoiding wasted efforts.

2. Plan reasonably and make good use of time

Time is the most fair resource, and reasonable planning can maximize its value. You can use time management tools like the Pomodoro Technique. Divide your work time into 25-minute work intervals and 5-minute rest periods. After completing 4 Pomodoro intervals, take a longer break. This way, you can maintain high focus while avoiding fatigue. At the same time, based on the importance and urgency of tasks, classify them into four categories: important and urgent, important but not urgent, urgent but not important, and neither important nor urgent, prioritizing the important and urgent tasks to ensure that key matters are resolved in a timely manner.

3. Review in a timely manner and continuously optimize

Reviewing is an important link in improving efficiency. Spend a little time every day or every week reviewing the work and study process, analyzing what was done well and what areas have shortcomings. For example, after completing a project, think about whether unexpected situations arose during the project execution, whether your response strategies were effective, and if there are better solutions. By summarizing experiences and lessons learned through reviews, continuously adjust and optimize methods to avoid repeating mistakes in future work.

Effort is not blindly investing time and energy, but rather acting with strategy and method. Clarifying goals allows us to know why we strive, reasonable planning makes efforts orderly, and timely reviews allow efforts to continuously improve.

#BNB创新高

9.17 Morning Briefing！

Morning market watch on Bitcoin, 1-hour K line conceals secrets! The price surged to the upper Bollinger Band before reversing downwards to start its pullback journey. The KDJ three lines not only pulled back down but also showed a signal of 'false golden cross turning into real downward trend', indicating a direct downward shift in trend. Looking at the MACD, the three lines intersect downwards, with bullish momentum deflating like a punctured balloon, continuously weakening. Overall, the pullback trend is set, and the morning high short strategy is the 'wealth code'！

Here comes the trading advice, steadily grasping profit opportunities：

Bitcoin: decisively short in the range of 116900 - 117400, with a target aimed at 115700 - 116200, set the stop loss at 117900, steadily capturing profits！

Altcoin: boldly short in the range of 4550 - 4600, with the target locked at 4450 - 4500, set the stop loss at 4650, easily capturing profit opportunities！

#美联储降息预期升温

DOGE Battle: Whales Hoarding vs. Technical Alerts, Follow or Wait?

Recently, the popularity of DOGE has soared, but it has fallen into a dilemma of "whales buying without selling" and "technical alerts for a pullback." Investors are torn between whether to follow or wait; below is the breakdown for you.

1. Whales "Hoard More as Prices Drop," Selling Pressure Absorbed

On-chain monitoring data shows that in the past two weeks, as the DOGE price slightly pulled back, addresses holding more than 1 million DOGE coins began to enter "buying mode." Over the past 10 days, whale addresses have cumulatively net increased their holdings by over 50 million coins, with a total amount exceeding 12.5 million USD. Moreover, in the past month, these whales' selling volume accounted for only 0.3% of their total holdings, with leading whales even absorbing nearly 80% of the market selling pressure in one go, making it difficult for retail investors to crash the market.

2. Technical Indicators Flash Red, High Pullback Risk

The Money Flow Index (MFI) is a key warning signal, currently reaching 83, far exceeding the overbought threshold of 70, marking the highest level in three months, indicating that short-term speculative trading is overheating, with a high probability of a pullback to follow. The K-line pattern also indicates that DOGE has been fluctuating in the 0.255 - 0.262 USD range over the past 5 days, repeatedly testing the 0.265 USD resistance level without success, and during the highs, trading volume has shrunk, indicating weakening bullish strength, suggesting a potential short-term pullback to the 0.245 - 0.25 USD range.

3. Whales "Sticking It Out" with Confidence, Positive Fundamentals

Firstly, publicly listed companies are entering the market by increasing their holdings; U.S. listed company Lingerie Fighting Championships has purchased 250,000 DOGE for brand marketing and user interaction, sending a signal of institutional recognition. Secondly, the approval process for spot ETFs is entering a critical period, with multiple institutions' DOGE spot ETF applications having been "accelerated for review," with results expected as early as November. If approved, it will attract substantial funds into the market.

4. Retail Investor Decision: Stability is Key

If you want to follow the whales, be prepared for a pullback, controlling your position to not exceed 10% of total funds to avoid panic selling. If you want to wait for a pullback, it is recommended to wait for DOGE to pull back to around 0.245 USD before buying, as this price level is a recent support level, and the money flow index can return to normal ranges, helping to avoid short-term risks and acquire low-position chips.

#山寨季将至？

Positive developments for DOGE require time; short-term fluctuations are normal. Investors should not have a "get rich quick" mentality, but rather maintain patience. Follow me to receive real-time alerts on DOGE pullback points, ETF approval dynamics, changes in whale holdings, and more information to help you find the right entry timing and avoid traps.

How to Accurately Wait for Opportunities and Achieve Profits

In the cryptocurrency market, to make a profit, one must master various skills. Waiting for the right moment and managing funds effectively is particularly crucial.

1. Waiting for Trading Opportunities

Strictly Adhere to Rules: The cryptocurrency market has many golden rules, such as not holding onto positions, not trying to guess tops and bottoms, not relying on news, and not exiting profits too easily. Holding onto positions and trying to guess tops and bottoms can easily lead to profit loss; the veracity of news is hard to discern, so one should not be gullible; exiting too early when in profit may cause one to miss subsequent trends. At the same time, do not trade impulsively due to big candlestick movements, and do not blindly assume that the market has reached its end; avoid frequent trading to reduce costs and the likelihood of making mistakes, and do not take counter-trend positions—do not act rashly until the trend has changed. Eliminate Distractions: Do not treat trading as a primary occupation; reduce the time spent monitoring the market to avoid being disturbed by short-term fluctuations. Do not heed others' opinions or make significant mistakes like high-leverage positions; stay away from those who drain your attention. Do not blindly follow others, as changes in the cryptocurrency market happen quickly, and without personal insight, it is hard to make profits. Discard classic phrases from retail investors like 'if only I had known' and 'what if'; do not trust rumors and engage in discussions to enhance understanding.

2. Mastering Trading Techniques

Follow the Trend: Make trend-following your principle, capturing price fluctuations based on market dynamics; even very small price differences can be actively traded in the short term. For instance, if the trend is expected to rise, open long positions and close them when there are profits; if prices are not declining, open short positions and close them when there are profits; remain still during pullbacks until there is no trend to follow. Sensitivity to Market Movements: Focus on trend-based trading primarily, with counter-trend trading as a supplement. Buy to profit during an upward trend and close positions, selling quickly during pullbacks, always adhering to the principle of following the trend, and doing the opposite in a downtrend. Arbitrage Trading: In the same market and asset, buy strong month contracts during a rising trend and sell weak month contracts to profit; do the opposite when shorting.

3. Effective Fund Management

Fund management should not be independent of the trading system; a mature trading system should include fund management. It starts with risk control, such as a moving average trading system. If the accuracy rate is 30% and the profit-loss ratio is 7:3, it does not make money and has high risks, but by reducing position sizes, risks can be lowered. Amplifying Profits: By not changing the rules for opening and closing positions or the profit-loss ratio, adjusting positions can lead to profitability. Maintain an average holding of 10% for profitable positions and control loss positions at around 5%, allowing a non-profitable system to become profitable and a system making small profits to make larger profits.

#FedRateCutExpectations

Which can break through in the short-term arena: DOGE, PEPE, or SHIB?

Recently, the meme coin sector has been heating up, with DOGE, PEPE, and SHIB's short-term performances drawing attention. This article analyzes from the perspectives of the market, technology, and community to provide reference for investors.

DOGE

DOGE's current price is about 0.23 USD, ranking 10th globally in market capitalization, with a circulating market value of 249.7 billion RMB and a 24-hour trading volume exceeding 35 billion RMB, showing good liquidity. However, it is in the mid-range of a consolidation period over the past 6 months, and a short-term doubling requires extreme conditions, such as an overall bull market and significant unexpected external stimulus. Technically, the RSI has entered the oversold zone with rebound expectations, but the MACD shows a death cross on the daily chart, with green bars expanding, indicating a build-up of bearish momentum in the medium to long term. Although the community has over ten million fans, activity has declined, heavily relying on celebrity effects, lacking sustained influence, and the probability of short-term doubling is below 20%, while it can serve as a "ballast" in the long term.

PEPE

PEPE's price is about 0.000012 USD, ranking 39th globally in market capitalization, with a circulating market value of 36.887 billion RMB. The 24-hour trading volume is about 8.959 billion RMB, with a turnover rate exceeding 24%. In the past 7 days, net inflows exceeded 2 billion RMB, indicating high short-term capital attention. Listed for less than 2 years, technical indicators are limited, price volatility depends on sentiment, with support at 0.000008 USD and significant upward potential. The community is centered around "internet memes + rebellious spirit," appealing to young investors, with the highest topic volume. Its "low price + high turnover + high heat" meets the conditions for short-term doubling, and when the 24-hour trading volume exceeds 15 billion RMB, prices often accompany increases of over 30%. Short-term speculators can participate, with positions not exceeding 5%, and set a stop-loss line of 15% - 20%.

SHIB

SHIB's price is about 0.000012 USD, having dropped over 25% in the past 6 months, ranking 20th globally in market capitalization, with a circulating supply of up to 589 trillion tokens. The 24-hour trading volume is less than 3 billion RMB, with a turnover rate of only 4.2%, indicating low market attention. Technical indicators show no clear bullish or bearish signals, and deflationary measures are progressing slowly. Community activity has declined, with a decrease in the number of new addresses, and the probability of short-term doubling is below 5%, suggesting a wait-and-see approach.

#FedRateCutExpectations

Revealing Rolling Warehouse: A "Double-Edged Sword" that Leverages Small Capital to Unlock Great Wealth

Rolling warehouse, an operation that can bring exponential growth in returns, carries extremely high risks behind it, and operations must be cautious. Combining rolling warehouses with compound interest is a cost-effective strategy, with its core lying in effectively utilizing unrealized profits.

1. Example of Rolling Warehouse Operation

Taking 5000 capital and 10x leverage, with BTC current price at 10000 as an example. After establishing a position, BTC rises to 11000, a 10% increase, yielding a profit of 5000. Floating profits with additional capital means adding 5000, and if it rises another 10% to 12000, the total including principal and interest will be 25000; rolling warehouse involves closing the previous position, using the total of 10000 including principal and interest to re-establish a position, which under the same increase results in 20000 including principal and interest. If this cycle continues, when BTC rises to 20000, a 100% increase, floating profits will ultimately reach 3250000, while rolling warehouse will achieve 5120000, showing a huge difference.

2. Comparison of Rolling Warehouse and Growth Models

Regular position establishment is similar to linear growth, like driving a car with steady acceleration; floating profits with additional capital are based on linear growth; rolling warehouse represents exponential growth, akin to technological development, slow in the beginning and rapid in the later stages. Strictly speaking, contracts do not count as linear growth, but for ease of understanding, this analogy can be made.

3. Essential Conditions and Risks of Rolling Warehouse

Rolling warehouse operations have strict conditions, requiring good fund management, setting profit-taking and stop-loss, and the prerequisite is a bull market with unilateral increases. The biggest risk lies in the possibility of losing everything when encountering a retracement of more than 10 points. However, with reasonable profit-taking and stop-loss settings, one can still give it a try during a major market cycle that occurs once every four years.

4. The Relationship Between Rolling Warehouse and Compound Interest

The true meaning of rolling warehouse lies in compound interest, which fully mobilizes unrealized profits (floating profits). Some people leverage and think with compound interest, transforming small capital into substantial wealth, which is the only possibility for small capital to earn big money. To earn big money with small capital, three points must be met: compound interest thinking, bull market conditions, and correct operations, none of which can be lacking.

5. Application of Compound Interest Thinking

Compound interest thinking is applicable not only to rolling warehouse but also to spot trading. For example, with an annualized rate of 100% and 5000 capital, 6 cycles can reach 320000, while 11 cycles can reach 10240000, with the difficulty of realization being much lower than that of futures rolling warehouse.

#StrategyBTCPurchase

The Fed's interest rate cut is imminent, revealing opportunities and risks in the cryptocurrency market.

At 2 AM the day after tomorrow, the Fed will announce the interest rate cut results. The market expects a cut of 25 basis points, and the key lies in Powell's statement about "how many more cuts this year," which will determine the liquidity direction in the cryptocurrency market for the next 3 to 6 months.

Looking back at the Fed's interest rate cuts over the past 30 years, a rate cut is not a universal key for "profiting from buying cryptocurrencies"; the results vary based on "economic conditions + asset price positions":

2020: The pandemic caused economic stagnation, the Fed urgently cut rates by 150 basis points and launched unlimited quantitative easing, with Bitcoin soaring from $3,800 to $69,000, igniting a super bull market.

2007: The subprime mortgage crisis erupted, U.S. stocks were at a high, and the Fed cut rates by 525 basis points in a year with no effect, leading to economic collapse. Although Bitcoin had not yet been created at that time, risk assets suffered a total rout. 2001: The burst of the internet bubble combined with the 911 incident saw the Fed cut rates 11 times in a year by 550 basis points, yet this could not prevent a further 20% decline in tech stocks, leading to a recession.

1995: Economic growth slowed but there was no recession, inflation was stable, and Greenspan cut rates by 75 basis points in six months, resulting in a 3-year rally in U.S. stocks.

The current market is special, with "no recession + all assets at high levels," meaning the effects of rate cuts may be discounted. The S&P 500 has reached new highs, with valuations at the 85th percentile over the past 10 years; U.S. Treasury yields are falling, with funds betting on easing in advance. In the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin's gains are weak, and if Powell does not mention "multiple cuts this year," it may pull back to $118,000; altcoins have gone through a “copycat season,” with new opportunities in new public chains, AI + blockchain narrative coins, and other varieties with new stories and concentrated chips.

This rate cut requires caution about two major risks: first, the risk of secondary inflation. If Powell warns against secondary inflation rearing its head, indicating a pause in rate cuts, liquidity will tighten, leading to corrections in Bitcoin, U.S. stocks, and U.S. Treasuries; second, the risk of stagflation, where the economy does not recover after rate cuts and inflation remains high, causing funds to flee risk assets, leading to a bloodbath in the cryptocurrency market.

This rate cut is a "catalyst," amplifying the market while exposing risks. Do not blindly go all in or stay empty; the key is to follow the signals, remain cautiously optimistic, seize the market, and know how to "take profits."

#GoldHitsRecordHigh