Andy in Crypto

Breaking:

The probability of betting on a 25 basis point interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December has risen to 75.5%.

I have always believed that the Federal Reserve is in a difficult position, but in reality, there are not many choices, only QE is the way forward.

The reason is simple, the U.S. government is short on funds, and in 2026 will release several trillion U.S. Treasury bonds into the market, thereby increasing the TGA financial account. Whether it's the Federal Reserve purchasing directly or so-called overseas hedge funds buying, the Federal Reserve needs to provide liquidity to the market; otherwise, bank reserves will explode, which would be even more dangerous.

However, the Federal Reserve does not want to bear the blame for rising inflation, so it seems that the Federal Reserve needs to wait for a "reason"—this could be a stock market crash, a bank failure, or a similar event.

#bitcoin #RateCutExpectations #Powell #SPX #macro

Tom Lee is still continuously buying $ETH. Last week's ETH buying situation remained at a low weekly purchase compared to the previous two months, with only 69,800 pieces bought, worth about 198 million USD.

Tom Lee's average buying price for ETH is $3997, with a floating loss of -30% and a cumulative loss of -4.25 billion USD.

Brother Tom is really solid; let's hope this guy doesn't crash the market.

#TomLee #nmbr #Ethereum #BTC #Crypto

Last night, the US stock market rebounded, and Trump played a significant role.

BTC is more often considered a risk asset, in the same basket as the Nasdaq and growth stocks. BTC's trend closely follows the US stock market.

It might still be a bit early to call a bull run; what really determines the next phase of the market are the Federal Reserve's policies, fiscal and treasury companies, ETF funds, and the narratives surrounding cryptocurrency.

#BTC☀ #SPX #美股超话 #TRUMP #Crypto

Retail investors are exiting, while whales are entering

🚨 The cruelest truth on the internet is in these few images.
Previous tweet explanation (Image 1): Retail investors are panic selling, and surrender indicators have reached an all-time high.
🩸 Image 2 and Image 3: Whales are crazily opening long positions, building an epic bottom structure.🐳

Do you understand what has happened? This is a textbook-level "wealth transfer".

While you are scared and giving up your shares, the smartest money is quietly stepping in. 🧵 In-depth analysis of whale's trading intentions 👇

#bitcoin #whales #trading #CycleTrend #crypto

CME Gap Speculation

🚨 When prices are rising, but funding rates are falling? Someone is betting big on the "CME Gap."

Take a look at the orange bars at the bottom of this chart (negative rates). As Bitcoin breaks through $87k, a large number of shorts are aggressively entering the market.

Why are they willing to short while prices are rising? The answer is just one word: CME Gap.

#Bitcoin #cme #ShortSqueeze #crypto #Trading

Pain is Opportunity

We have just touched the signal line of the 'absolute bottom.' Bitcoin has dropped to 80.6K, and what's happening on-chain is even more 'bloody.'

Checkonchain data shows that the profit and loss ratio for short-term holders (STH) has just set a historical low (Lowest Ever). 📉

It's worse than the bottom of the bear market in 2022 and more desperate than the 312 circuit breaker. This is a textbook-level 'capitulation' signal. Why is this great news for the bulls? 🧵 Let's dive deep into the on-chain data 👇

1/ The market is like a sponge. To absorb new water (upward), the old water must first be squeezed out (downward/cleanse).
Current data shows that the 'water content' of short-term chips has been squeezed to the driest level in history.
All leverage, all trend-following positions, and all the weak hands have exited in this wave of cleansing.

2/ History is astonishingly similar.
Looking back at the left side of the chart, every deep probe in the red line area (though it has never been this deep before) is immediately followed by a strong rebound.
This depth of 'capitulation' usually does not last long. It is a leading indicator of a V-shaped reversal.

3/ Be greedy when others are fearful.
Data clearly indicates: this is the 'bottom area.' Are you ready for the upcoming rebound? Or have you already been washed out?

Tell me your status in the comments:
💎 Diamond Hands (HODL) 📄 Paper Hands (Sold)
Follow me @Andy in Crypto for deep insights together.

#Bitcoin #Onchain #Capitulation #MarketCycle #Crypto

Two-year Treasury yield: A leading indicator of the Federal Reserve's rates

Powell thought he was driving the Federal Reserve's rate car, but in reality, he is just a passenger in the front seat. 🚗🤡 The real driver is the 2-year Treasury yield (US02Y).

Look at the white line in this chart, historical win rate 100%: the market always moves first (K-line), and the Federal Reserve is always forced to follow (orange line), and the Federal Reserve's actions are always lagging (Lagging).

Now, this 'real driver' has stepped on the gas (yield facing a breakthrough downwards), how long can the Federal Reserve hold on? 🧵 Macro 'spoilers' are coming👇

1/ Many people are focused on the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes, but actually, just looking at this chart is enough.
Orange line = Federal Reserve federal funds rate (lagging indicator). K-line = 2-year Treasury yield (leading indicator/smart money).
When the K-line drops below the orange line and continues to decline, it is sending a message to the Federal Reserve: 'You are too tight, hurry up and cut rates, your actions are too slow (Lagging)!'
Every time, the Federal Reserve ultimately has to listen. No exceptions.

2/ Shift your attention to the far right of the chart. 👉 US02Y is forming a textbook-level descending continuation pattern (purple line).
High points are continuously lowering, and the center of gravity is shifting downwards. Now it is testing the lower edge, and once it effectively breaks down, the yield will experience a cliff-like drop.
This means that the market's expected rate cut magnitude is much larger than what the Federal Reserve is currently acknowledging.

3/ The conclusion is simple:
Do not listen to what the Federal Reserve says about 'Higher for Longer', that is for retail investors. Watch what the bond market is trading.
Are you ready for the next wave of liquidity injection? Let's talk about your position allocation in the comments!
Follow me @Andy in Crypto to understand the data that really matters in this market.

#Rate #US02Y #美联储 #宏观经济 #Bitcoin

Trend Destroyer-USDT.D
The most honest chart in the market is not BTC/USD, but USDT.D.📊
After months of volatile consolidation, we have just witnessed a structure break.
⚠️ Breakthrough confirmed: USDT market share has strongly broken through the upper boundary of the descending wedge.

This chart is screaming: "Liquidity is drying up." If you ignore this signal, your account balance may pay the price.🧵

1/ This is a typical triangular convergence breakout.
The yellow support line below (Trend Line 1 & 3) is rock solid, triggering market crashes (funds flowing back to USDT) every time it's touched.
The pressure line above (Trend Line 2) was originally a bull market umbrella, but now the umbrella is broken. That candlestick with "!!!!" is the rallying call for bears.

2/ Historical experience tells us:
Whenever USDT.D starts an upward trend (Trend Up), it often corresponds to the "darkest hour" of the cryptocurrency circle.
Unless this is a fakeout, going long at this position is like picking up coins in front of a bulldozer. The risk-reward ratio is extremely poor.

3/ Whether you are a bull or a bear, respecting the trend is the only rule for survival.
I will closely monitor the weekly closing. If it holds, I will significantly reduce my risk asset positions. Of course, if this is a fake breakout and it quickly drops back, that will be a signal for the start of a super bull market. But until then, stay cautious.
Retweet this post to remind your friends. This is a macro perspective that many people overlook.🔄
#USDT #Tether #Bitcoin #BTC #bullrun

1/ For friends who do not understand this chart, let me explain:
Each pillar represents the amount of BTC bought and held in that price range.
We are currently positioned (gray arrow $84.5k) in a relatively empty area. But looking up, the red area (especially the pillar between $104k-$111k) is frighteningly high — that is the holding cost zone of 2.136 million BTC.

2/ This is what is called a “holding trap.”
When the price rebounds to the range of $93,000 - $100,000, the holders of these millions of bitcoins will face a soul-searching question: “Finally back to break-even, should I sell and exit, or continue to hold?”
This human weakness creates a huge resistance to upward movement. Unless driven by super positive news, it is difficult to break through in one go.

3/ In the short term, there is strong support below at $62k-$67k (the fourth support), but there is significant pressure above. The next market trend is likely to be “sideways trading,” using time to digest the holding trap above.
Only when the price effectively stays above $111,000 can we truly say “the sky is the limit.”
Is your current holding cost below the current price, or is it at the top of a trap? Let’s chat in the comments!

Follow me @Andy in Crypto to earn the wealth of knowledge together.

The Sword of Damocles Above

⚠️ Bitcoin is currently $84,500, but the real battle has not yet begun.
Take a look at this URPD chip distribution chart; the "dark cloud" above is simply suffocating.

Data shows that between $93,000 and $111,000, over 3.3 million Bitcoins are piled up. This is a massive "profit-taking pressure wall."

For the bulls to return to the peak, they must chew through this tough bone. But is that possible? 🧵
In-depth analysis of the current situation👇

#BTC #URPD #Glassnode #链上数据 #筹码分布

The Darkness Before Dawn (Continued)
1/ This is not metaphysics, this is the Global Liquidity Cycle.
The blue line at the bottom is like the 'breathing' of liquidity. Every time it touches the bottom and rebounds (green dot position), it signifies the end of the monetary tightening cycle and the reopening of the faucet.
It happened in 2016, it happened in 2020, and it is happening in 2025.

2/ The 'green area' is the most tormenting. It makes you doubt life, making you feel that Bitcoin has turned into a stablecoin.
Its only purpose is to wash out the weak hands.
The 'red area' often comes unexpectedly. Once it begins, it won't give you a second chance to get back in.

3/ This is a game of patience.

TechDev's chart suggests we are on the brink of a huge pump.
Are you ready with your position? Or are you planning to wait until half of the red bar appears before chasing the high?
Let me know in the comments: Are you fully invested and lying flat, or are you still waiting for lower points?
👇

Follow me @Andy in Crypto to jointly earn the wealth of knowledge.

The Darkness Before Dawn
If you feel bored right now and want to get off, please stare at this picture for 10 seconds.⏳
We have just endured the longest "green zone" in history (the pre-parabolic night). Look at that green dot in the bottom right corner—that's not the end; that's the starting gun signal.
History is always remarkably similar:
🟡Painful Bear Market (Bear)✅🟢Long Struggle (Pre-Parabolic)✅🔴??? (Parabolic)⏳Are you ready to welcome that "Red Vertical Column"?🧵👇

#Bitcoin #Crypto #Liquidity #Cycle #流动性

3/ I am not a financial advisor, I am just a spectator.
But I want to ask: When the index returns to 80 (extreme greed), what do you wish to remember about what you did today?
A. Courageously increase positions
B. Panic sell
C. Play dead and do nothing
Leave your choice in the comments! Let's see how many people are "iron-headed leeks". 🌱👇

#BTC #加密货币 #恐惧贪婪指数
2/ The index has reached 15, which means that the last bit of long leverage in the market may be getting liquidated.
At this time, buying is counterintuitive, and it's normal to feel shaky.
But you should ask yourself: are you here to panic with the crowd, or to be the minority picking up bloody chips in a pool of blood?

#BTC #加密货币 #恐惧贪婪指数
1/ History does not simply repeat itself, but it always rhymes astonishingly.
Take a look at the long-term chart below. Every green deep pit (extreme fear zone) turns out to be a golden pit in hindsight.
At times like this, your amygdala (responsible for fear) will tell you: "Run fast, this time is different, this time it’s really over."
Spoiler alert: Usually, this time is not much different either.

#BTC #恐惧贪婪指数 #加密货币

The current market sentiment is 15 (extreme fear). This is the 'bottom fishing opportunity' that everyone has been looking for... and yet now everyone is busy filling out McDonald's job application forms?🍔🍟

Take a look at this picture; when the index turns this shade of green (panic zone), it's usually when smart money starts to enter the market.

Why do humans always shout 'go all in' at 70,000 and 80,000, but call for zero at a panic index of 15?🧵

Let's talk about this most expensive psychological trap👇

3/ This extreme divergence usually doesn't last long. One side inevitably needs to converge towards the other.

A) The real economy subsequently collapses, validating Bitcoin's prophecy. B) A soft economic landing, where Bitcoin realizes it has been too pessimistic, followed by a violent rebound to correct its valuation.

I personally tend to think that the latter is happening. What about you? Which line is the truth of the future?

Follow me @Andy in Crypto for more insights that peel back the phenomenon to see the essence of cryptocurrency.
🛰️

2/ Why is this happening?

Because Bitcoin is the ultimate 24/7 trading liquidity sponge. It does not need to wait for official data releases. It re-prices in real-time based on global central bank monetary policy expectations and risk preferences.

Currently, this extremely low implied pricing indicates that the market is extremely lacking in liquidity and is highly risk-averse.

1/ The black line and the pink line in the chart represent the ISM PMI, reflecting the actual feelings of American manufacturing managers — it's a bit cold now, but not frozen to death.

The small dot labeled "Bitcoin" represents what the Bitcoin market thinks the economy should look like right now. The gap is too large.

In simple terms: macro data is still slowly going down the stairs, while Bitcoin has already jumped out the window.

#Andy加密观察 ：Casino vs Reality
The traditional financial markets are still driving by looking in the rearview mirror, while Bitcoin has already opened the perspective of God.👁️

This image perfectly illustrates what is called "cognitive dissonance." Macroeconomic data (ISM) only shows weakness, but Bitcoin's price action indicates that the economy has already collapsed.

This huge gap means a huge opportunity (or risk). Who is wrong after all?

🧵In-depth interpretation of this million-dollar macro divergence signal👇