Raoul Pal's View: the cycles are no longer the same
Raoul Pal, founder of Real Vision, has long viewed the crypto market not in isolation, but through macro lenses. He is one of those who warned in advance about a Bitcoin correction of approximately 35%, and here the important thing is not the prediction itself, but the logic he employs.
His key thesis is that the classical four-year cycle no longer works as clearly as it used to. Instead, a longer cycle is forming — about 5 years and 4 months. The reason is simple: crypto no longer lives in a vacuum. It is increasingly tied to global liquidity cycles, interest rates, and central bank actions.
If this approach is correct, then the final peaks of the bull market may shift not to the end of 2025, but to the second quarter of 2026. This breaks conventional thinking and explains why many feel 'as if it's already too late, but nothing has happened yet.'
Macroeconomic background: why money is not rushing into crypto
According to Bloomberg, the consumer sector in the UK is effectively stuck. People are not rushing to invest, but rather trying to preserve cash. In such an environment, risk assets, including crypto and altcoins, automatically lose the inflow of new capital.
A similar situation is broader. If you look at the US since 2008, the real economy has grown weakly. At the same time, stock indices have almost continuously reached new highs. This is not a wonder but a result of monetary stimulus, cheap money, and constant expansion of central bank balance sheets.
The system has gotten used to living on stimulation. Sooner or later, the next cycle of 'cheap money' will be launched again. The only question is time, not the fact itself.
Key events of the week: why the market is nervous
Ahead is a week where news can easily break any local scenario.
First — data on the US labor market. This is the main indicator of economic health. Weak figures heighten fears of recession, but at the same time, pressure the Fed to lower rates faster. Strong figures, on the contrary, give the regulator a reason not to hurry.
Second — inflation of the dollar. Without its stable decrease, the Fed remains with tied hands. The market is very sensitive to any surprises in this data.
Third — the Bank of Japan's decision. A potential rate hike for the first time in 17 years is no small matter. The cheap yen has been used for carry trade for years. If loans become more expensive, investors are forced to close positions in stocks, bonds, and crypto to repay debts.
It is worth mentioning separately 'witching Friday.' Expiration of options and futures often means sharp movements, where logic can temporarily give way to market mechanics.
Summary: where we are now
The market is in a phase of low liquidity and heightened risks. This does not mean that growth is impossible. Local rebounds are quite realistic. But the overall picture is not about aggression but caution.
If cycles really extend, then the current period may not be a finale but a prolonged pause before the next stage. In such moments, those who win are not those who are constantly in trades, but those who know how to wait, filter out noise, and work with clear patterns, not emotions.
