1. First, let's pour cold water: there are 3 death traps in this rebound, 90% of people are stepping on them!
Chasing high altcoins = giving away money! Now open the market, a bunch of unknown altcoins have surged over 20% in a single day, aren't you tempted? But the data doesn't lie: the open interest of Bitcoin perpetual contracts has been cut in half since October, the market can't withstand the impact of large trades, these surging altcoins are just short-term speculative plays, tomorrow they might just plummet! Remember: only mainstream coins like Ethereum, which have technological upgrades (the upgrade of EIP-1559) and institutional funding support, have rebound sustainability, don't even touch altcoins!
Treating the correlation with US stocks as a comfort? A huge mistake! Just because US stocks' crypto concept stocks have risen does not mean the crypto market can replicate the trend — the correlation between Bitcoin and Nasdaq has soared to 0.52 in 2025. It seems to rise together, but in reality, institutional funds may return from the crypto space to hot sectors like AI at any time. Last week, a divergence of 'stocks rise, crypto falls' occurred; don't be deceived by the correlation effect!
Is it superstitious to believe that rate cuts must rise? Beware of hawkish traps! The market is crazy about the Federal Reserve's rate cuts being beneficial, but Polymarket data shows that a 25 basis point rate cut has been completely priced in; what truly determines trends is policy guidance! If the Federal Reserve implements a 'hawkish rate cut' (cutting rates but warning of inflation risks), funds will immediately flee to government bonds, and the crypto market will be drained of liquidity, possibly repeating the 19 billion liquidation disaster of October!
Second, the iron law of trends: I dare to say that there will be only these two outcomes by the end of the year!
Short term (within 12 months): 83,000 - 95,000 range oscillation, a breakout is a lure! Don't be confused by the high point of 94,500; analyst Caladan has long verified that current liquidity is thin + year-end fund recovery, Bitcoin simply cannot stabilize at the 95,000 mark. Chasing highs now is no different from the leeks that surged to 126,000 in October! Moreover, with increasing divergences in central bank policies, any slight movement can trigger violent fluctuations. Volatility will only increase before next week's Federal Reserve decision!
Medium to long term (2026): Either break 130,000 or fall below 75,000! My core judgment is never ambiguous: If the Federal Reserve can complete 2-3 rate cuts in 2026, combined with continuous inflows into institutional ETFs, Bitcoin will break the 130,000 mark by mid-next year; but if the rate cuts fall short of expectations, 75,000 will be a lifeline, and falling below it will directly trigger a new round of 'Bitcoin winter'! Remember: This is not the start of a bull market, but a period of bottom consolidation, patience is more important than 100 times leverage!
Third, a final reminder: Those who can survive are all who understand reverence!
In October, I shouted in the community 'Clear leverage, reduce positions in altcoins', how many people called me timid at that time? As a result, my fans were not on the 19 billion liquidation list! Now I reiterate: Control positions within 30%, only look at BTC and ETH for mainstream coins, absolutely zero allocation to altcoins, and never increase leverage before the Federal Reserve decision!
The core of making money in the crypto world is not chasing highs and cutting losses, but accurately predicting risks — last year I issued an early warning about the FTX crash, and this year I captured the two crashes in April and October, relying on extreme sensitivity to macro data and market structure.$BTC
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