Brothers, this is serious, at 3 AM tonight, something big is really coming, everyone must fasten your seatbelts.
In the previous article, Baige clearly expressed a bullish outlook and pointed out that this wave of increase belongs to a catch-up market.
And tonight's meeting will determine whether the market will feast or falter in the coming months.
Brothers, the news front is everything, emotion is the candlestick.
In fact, tonight's meeting is an exam where everyone knows the answer but is more afraid of it.
Let's get to the conclusion first: a 25 basis point rate cut is basically a done deal.
The probability of market betting has exceeded 87%
So, the suspense tonight is not about 'whether to cut or not',
It’s not about "how to cut" and "what to say after cutting."
So what exactly is the market afraid of now?
It's simple; what they fear is a "hawkish rate cut," what does that mean?
It's like giving you candy while sternly warning you:
"Just this one, it might be gone next year, don't expect me to keep feeding you!"
If Powell emphasizes in the post-meeting press conference that inflation is not completely under control, hinting that rate cuts may pause next year,
The market is likely to interpret this as "the easing has come to an end," which is a cold splash of water.
The flickering flame that just ignited may extinguish in an instant.
What’s more troublesome is that the Federal Reserve is currently in a heated disagreement internally, very divided.
One side calls for more liquidity to be released; while the other side feels that too much liquidity is a disaster.
This kind of high-level conflict makes their decision-making extremely unpredictable.
It has also shaken the market's trust in the "central bank's authority."
Therefore, tonight’s key points are just two:
1. Powell's words: Will he continue to be dovish to soothe the market, or show his hawkish claws to scare off the bulls?
2. The "dot plot" shows plans to cut rates several times in 2026, which effectively tells the market: "the good days are coming to an end."
So how does Baige view the next direction?
Actually, the market has already given the answer without my analysis.
Don't be fooled by the current indecision on the market; smart money has already cast its votes with their feet:
Last night $ETH a big bullish candle shot directly from around 3100 to 3400.
This is not a coincidence. Besides the expectation of interest rate cuts, there are two direct benefits:
One is that the beautiful regulatory authorities have eased their stance, allowing banks to engage in cryptocurrency "risk hedging" transactions.
This has opened a gap for traditional large funds to enter compliantly.
Second, institutions are frantically accumulating, just yesterday morning, a giant whale withdrew 9000 ETH from the exchange in one go.
Valued at nearly $30 million, this is clearly a posture of hoarding for a price increase, the ETH in the exchange is almost emptied.
$BTC this round of rebound reached 94000, but it is clear to feel that,
The main driving force for the rise is the leveraged funds from futures contracts, rather than the real spot buying.
This is like a group of people borrowing money to push prices up, with an unstable foundation. What’s worse is that,
Data shows that if Bitcoin's price can surge to 96000,
There will be a massive $436 million in short positions facing liquidation.
This is both fuel for the rise and potentially the source of extreme volatility.
In simple terms, the market has already preemptively accepted the expectations for "rate cuts" and "liquidity improvements."
If Powell's comments tonight are less dovish than expected,
Then the script of "buying expectations, selling facts" is very likely to unfold.
Having discussed the news front, let's return to the technical perspective.
In the face of such volatility, all flashy techniques are less effective than a few key price levels.
Above the big pie, the iron top is between 92000 to 94000, this is the recent core resistance area.
It has already been tested multiple times; before it breaks through with volume, all rises should be viewed as rebounds.
The strong and weak dividing line Baige believes is around 91500 - 92000.
Famous analyst Michael van de Poppe pointed out that if it can hold firmly here during the meeting,
Then the bulls still have a chance to test or even strike at the $100,000 mark.
Life-and-death support zone: 88000 must not be broken; once it breaks with volume,
This means the structure of the current rebound has been damaged, and it may further probe for support.
Additionally, there is a CME futures gap near 89500.
Historically, there is about an 80% probability that it will be filled.
This means the price has a natural pullback to this point.
The attack signal for Ethereum is 3400, last night's high point, also a psychological barrier.
If it effectively breaks through and stabilizes here, the next target might be 3800.
The short-term support is 3250; this is the current consolidation platform and the support level after yesterday's breakout.
If it can hold, the trend remains, with a bottom line defense at 3100. The upper limit of the previous fluctuation area.
This is also the launch platform for this round of rise; if it falls back here, the short-term offensive will be considered over.
Additionally, Baige believes that tonight in the one or two hours before and after the results are announced,
The market will be a meat grinder of emotions and algorithms, with extreme volatility.
So brothers, there’s no need to heavily invest or even fully bet on the direction; this is no different from gambling.
What we should truly focus on is the breakout and false breakout; if the news is released,
If the big pie can stabilize above 94000, or Ethereum can stabilize at 3400 and hold for an hour without dropping back,
Then one might consider following the trend with light positions. Conversely, if it quickly surges and then immediately crashes back,
forming a "false breakout," that would be a bearish signal to beware of a "boot dropping" counterattack.
Even if the Federal Reserve's remarks are dovish, the market might retreat because the good news is already priced in.
Remember, "buy on rumors, sell on facts" is one of the timeless acts in the financial market.
