You might not believe it, but seven years ago, when I entered the crypto market with 800 yuan, I couldn't even tell the difference between 'red up, green down' and 'green up, red down' on a candlestick chart. But now when I open my asset panel, that string of numbers with six zeros at the end is really not a pie falling from the sky—after all, the market is never short of 'overnight millionaires' with incredible luck; what's lacking is a trading system that can turn 'accidental profits' into 'inevitable results.'
Some time ago, I handed this method to my newly graduated apprentice. This kid doubled his capital in three months and keeps chasing after me shouting, 'Master, you are the best!' Well, today I might as well reveal the core logic that I've been keeping under wraps. Friends who understand, next time you might be able to add three more servings of pearls to your milk tea money.
First Iron Rule: Position is a 'lifesaver', not 'gambling chips'.
I have seen too many people put all their wealth into one asset; when it rises, they act like they want to date a young model, and when it falls, they cry looking for their parents. From day one, I set a rule for myself: divide the funds into five equal parts and only use one part each time.
Set a stop loss of 10 points. Even if I misjudge, a single loss will only account for 2% of the total funds—equivalent to the cost of a cup of milk tea. Leave at least 10 points of space for profit, and wait until the trend runs completely before netting in. Calculating this way, even if I get unlucky and make five mistakes in a row, the total capital will only lose 10%, still having the potential for a comeback; but as long as I'm right once, I can recover previous losses and still make a profit. Remember, surviving in the crypto market is more important than anything else.
Second Secret: Be friends with the trend, don't 'date' the market.
Many people always think about 'buying the bottom' at the lowest point, but end up buying 'halfway up the mountain', or even 'into the eighteen layers of hell'. I never do such foolish things; the core of improving the win rate is just two words: go with the trend.
A rebound in a downtrend? That’s just bait set by the market; it looks tempting, but biting it is like a fish hook. A pullback in an uptrend is the 'golden pit', just like encountering a favorite clothing item on sale while shopping; decisively buying is definitely the right move. Buying on the dip is always more reliable than trying to catch the bottom; after all, you never know how deep the 'bottom' of the market really is, but you can always feel the 'waist' of the trend.
As for those assets that surge in the short term, whether mainstream or niche, as soon as there are signals of 'high-level stagnation', run quickly! The market is like a roller coaster; it goes up fast and comes down even faster, don’t hold onto a gambler's mentality of 'waiting a little longer, it might rise again'—you think you are a 'sickle', but you’ve actually become someone else's 'chives box'.
You don't need to learn too much technical analysis; three core concepts are enough.
I have seen people filling their screens with dozens of indicators, getting dizzy and still failing to make trades. In fact, the simpler the technical analysis, the better it works; I only look at three:
MACD: A golden cross breaking the 0 axis is the 'entry signal'; at this point, the trend is just starting to gain momentum, which is safe; a dead cross above the 0 axis means 'reduce positions and run away', don’t be greedy for the last coin.
Trading Volume: This is the market's 'barometer'. A break with volume at a low level indicates that funds are entering; following to buy is definitely correct; a high volume stagnation at a high level means that funds are exiting, and if you don’t leave now, you will be 'stuck on guard'.
Moving Averages: Only trade assets where moving averages are trending up! The 3-day line looks at short-term fluctuations, the 30-day line judges the medium-term trend, the 84-day line captures major rally trends, and the 120-day line defines long-term direction. Moving averages are like the 'spine' of the asset; if the spine stands straight, it can go far.
The last two 'lifesavers', if you can't remember, carve them on your forehead.
First Rule: Never average down when in a loss. How many people have fallen into the vicious cycle of 'the more you lose, the more you add, the more you add, the more you lose', like adding water to a leaking boat, which will only sink faster in the end. If you want to average down, it must be when you are in profit, letting the profits 'snowball'.
Second Rule: Must review trades after each transaction. Spend 10 minutes at night checking your holding logic, see if the weekly candlestick verifies the trend is correct; if wrong, correct it, if right, summarize the experience. The market is always changing, and your strategy must 'evolve' with it; you can't use methods from 7 years ago to deal with today's market, can you?
In fact, there are no 'divine operations' in the crypto market; it’s merely about executing simple logic to the extreme. I took 7 years to prove this system works; how long are you willing to spend to verify it?
Of course, there is no myth of 'guaranteed profits' in the market. I also make mistakes in judgment, but this system allows me to cut losses in time when I err and earn enough profits when I'm right. Next, I will frequently share details from real battles, such as how to accurately judge moving average turns and how to respond to abnormal trading volumes.
Follow me, and next time we will talk about 'how to harvest profits in a volatile market'—after all, who would complain about having too much milk tea money in their pocket? See you in the comments section, let’s talk about what pitfalls you’ve encountered recently, and I’ll help you analyze them~
