A major pivot is emerging in the market. Trump's new spending direction indicates that defense and federal spending will increase significantly. As the government has to borrow more, yields and interest rates tend to stay high — and this directly narrows Powell's ability to cut rates as the market expects.
The recent surge in crypto is mainly based on hopes for cheaper money and ample liquidity. However, if the Fed is 'handcuffed' by budget deficits and expanded public spending, this expectation could reverse very quickly.
Powell has also made it clear: nothing has been confirmed yet, and the Fed is still divided on the pace of easing. If fiscal pressure increases, the path to rate cuts will certainly become more complicated.
🔷 Bullish Outlook
If the Fed maintains its rate cut path, crypto could recover very 'cleanly', smoothly, and have solid support below.
🔶 Bearish Outlook
If the easing process slows down or is delayed, volatility will increase sharply, and the 'risk-off' sentiment is likely to appear first.
Currently, the short-term trend is slightly leaning bearish due to increasing macro pressure, but the medium term remains positive if the easing cycle is maintained.
Smart money is watching yields and the Fed's tone. Retail continues to react based on candle patterns – not according to the logic of cash flow.
The next few days will determine the big direction. Prepare scenarios in advance, don't react emotionally.