In the takeaway box in Guangzhou at 2 AM, there was my most embarrassing crypto dream—who would have thought that the post-90s who used to count the eggs when ordering from Sha County snacks would now be able to fish steadily amidst the fluctuations of K-line?
After calculating, I have been crawling in the crypto market for 7 years. In the first 3 years, I became a 'negative teaching material' for the market: I lost all my principal and encountered problematic platforms. The 50,000 yuan I once held was like a sunshade caught in a typhoon, with not even a rib left. During the worst times, my boyfriend of 3 years left me with a sentence: 'This is gambling, not investing,' and disappeared at the alleyway of the urban village. I sat on the rooftop with a beer bottle until dawn, inadvertently avoiding the 'Black Thursday on March 12' which caused countless people to line up on rooftops.
The other day when I opened the market software, I rubbed my eyes three times—some people were crying as they deleted the software after being liquidated, while others leveraged their positions a hundredfold, and I was just left with a stench of alcohol and unfinished fried noodles. I later realized that the crypto market is never a 'gambling casino'; those tales of 'turning 2000 into millions' are just survivor bias wrapped in sugar coating, all hiding the cold glint of a sickle. The eight-digit account balance I've managed to hold onto isn't due to luck, but through four 'life-saving iron laws' that I've learned from hard lessons, each marked by blood and tears.
Rule 1: Don't reach out during rapid rises and slow declines; hidden in the smoke bomb is a sickle.
I've seen too many newcomers chase after 'rocket coins,' jumping in when they see the price suddenly surge by 20%, only to be caught at the peak. Remember, the real trend is 'volume-driven surge + steady progress.' If the price suddenly spikes and then starts to slowly decline with decreasing trading volume, it's not a washout; it's the big player 'lifting while selling.' Just like a vendor at the market suddenly shouting, 'last three pounds at a loss,' the more urgency they show in pushing you to buy, the tighter you should hold onto your wallet. Only when there is a volume-driven surge followed by a sudden appearance of a bearish candle breaking key support (known in the industry as a 'headless guillotine') is it a clear exit signal—don't hesitate, just run.
Rule 2: Rapid declines and slow rises are traps; rebounds are not reversals.
The 'gentle rebound' after a flash crash is the easiest to deceive. For instance, when a cryptocurrency suddenly drops by 30%, and then rises by 2% or 3% daily, it seems like it's 'stabilizing and recovering.' Many people think, 'the bottom is here,' but as soon as they enter, they find themselves holding the bag for the big player’s sell-off. This kind of 'rapid decline followed by slow rise' essentially means that the big player is 'selling in batches,' using small bullish candles to attract retail investors to take the bait, and once the inventory is nearly out, another round of sharp decline follows. It's like wanting to run a marathon after breaking a leg; you might take a couple of steps, but the bones aren't healed yet, and pushing harder will only lead to a worse fall.
Rule 3: Look for authenticity in volume at the top; silence is the real danger signal.
Many believe that 'high volume at the peak = top,' but that's not the case. If there's volume at the peak but prices keep hitting new highs, it indicates fierce bull-bear competition; as long as the bulls haven't surrendered, the trend can continue. However, if there’s a sudden 'low volume sideways' at a high level, and the market is as quiet as a street at 3 AM, that's a sign of an impending storm. It's like before a concert ends, when the stage suddenly goes silent—not the end, but the staff are clearing out, and soon it will be lights out and doors locked.
Rule 4: Look for continuity in volume at the bottom; don't take single instances of volume seriously.
Volume 'increases at the bottom' do not necessarily signal the start of a trend; it could be bait for the big player 'luring in.' For example, if a cryptocurrency has been falling for a long time and suddenly surges by 10% on high volume, many think 'the bottom has arrived,' but they end up getting trapped. The true bottom is marked by 'sustained volume'—with trading volume increasing for 3-5 consecutive days and prices steadily standing above key moving averages; that's when capital is genuinely entering. It's like seeds germinating; you can't just water them once and expect them to sprout; they need consistent sunlight and rain to take root.
In the crypto market, 90% of losses stem from 'efforts in the wrong direction': buying whatever others say, going all-in based on a technical indicator, panicking when it drops, and becoming greedy when it rises. The market is always there, just like the morning dim sum in Guangzhou that always has a queue, but those who step out of rhythm will only get crushed in line.
Every day after the market closes, I brew a pot of tea and gaze out at the slender waist of the city, thinking: if I had known these things back then, would I have lost less? But then I realize, without those experiences of falling and getting hurt, these iron laws wouldn't be ingrained in my bones. I will slowly share more 'counter-intuitive operations,' such as how to maintain a steady mindset while sipping milk tea during fluctuations and how to distinguish which 'positive news' is just a mirage. Follow me, and together we won't be the chives in the crypto market, but gardeners—after all, those who can smile while making money are always the ones who understand the rules.
