### What has happened with SOL?
Solana (SOL), the native cryptocurrency of the Solana blockchain, has had a volatile year in 2025 but with underlying bullish potential. Let's recall the brief historical context to understand the landscape:
- **Recent history**: In 2023 and 2024, SOL recovered strongly after the collapse of FTX in 2022 (which significantly affected Solana due to its connection with Sam Bankman-Fried), rising more than 770% in 2023 and reaching an all-time high (ATH) of **$293.31 USD** on January 19, 2025, driven by post-election optimism in the U.S. and pro-crypto policies. However, since then, it has entered a corrective phase, falling 52.4% from that peak, influenced by the overall crypto market (correlated with Bitcoin) and outflows from Solana ETFs.
- **What has happened in the last few weeks (November-December 2025)**:
- In early November, SOL was trading above $200, but a general bearish trend in the crypto market (including declines in BTC) brought it to lows of ~$120-127 in late November and early December. This was exacerbated by net outflows in Solana ETFs (for example, 21Shares' TSOL lost $42M in a week), creating selling pressure.
- Negative factors: Increased volatility (8.9% in the last 30 days), fear sentiment in the market (Fear & Greed Index at 28), and a temporary reduction in memecoins/DeFi activity. Additionally, the RSI (in your screenshot ~48-50) indicates neutral-bearish momentum, with moving averages (50 and 200 days) declining since late November.
- Positive factors: Despite ETF outflows, $321M was redeployed directly on the Solana blockchain, boosting the TVL (total value locked) to ~$4.6B. The network has achieved 662 days without outages (historic record), strengthening its reputation for scalability (up to 700k transactions/second with Proof-of-History). Integrations like Revolut (for 65M users), Venmo, Cash App, and a bridge with Base (Ethereum) via Coinbase/Chainlink have increased adoption.
In your screenshot from Binance (around 18:01 UTC on December 4), SOL was at **$139.11 USD**, with a drop of -3.4% in 24h (from $146.87 max to $137.70 min), high volume (~$2.9B USD in 24h), and negative changes: -3.46% (1d), -2.56% (7d), -15.63% (30d), up to -41.54% (1 year). The candlestick chart shows a bearish consolidation in the short term, with stable volume SMA but RSI in neutral territory (not oversold).
### What's happening now?
- **Current Price (December 4, 2025)**: According to real-time data from CoinGecko and CoinMarketCap, SOL is trading around **$139.50-141 USD**, with a market cap of ~$78B (6th globally) and 24h volume of ~$4.5-5B USD (up 21% vs. yesterday, signaling renewed interest). It has recently recovered to $140 after touching supports at $120-127, but remains -3.5% in 24h and +1-1.6% in 7d (slight weekly recovery).
- **Technical Trends**:
- **Bullish Pattern**: A bullish "W" has formed on 4h/daily charts, with potential for $165 if it breaks resistance at $145-150. Key support at $120-125; if it falls below, it could go to $110.
- **Fundamentals**: Community sentiment 84% bullish (based on 906K votes). Increase in TVL, stablecoins, and open interest in futures indicates "risk-on" positioning. Key news: Launch of Franklin Solana ETF (SOEZ), acquisition of RockawayX by Solmate ($2B), and plans for SKR token on Solana Mobile (January 2026, with airdrops). On X (Twitter), there is hype among builders and memes, with posts about "claiming $145" and "SOL army too strong."
- **Short Predictions**: Models like CoinCodex see +10% to $156-157 by January 2026; Bitget targets $159 by the end of December. Weekly range: $138-155, with high volatility.
In summary, SOL is in a "capitulation" phase (NUPL in reversal zone), where long-term holders are reducing sales, and the ecosystem (DeFi, NFTs, gaming) continues to grow despite the macro-bearish environment.
### Can we make a short or long entry?
**Disclaimer**: This is NOT financial advice. Crypto trading is high risk; only use money you can afford to lose. Analyze your risk tolerance and consult experts. Based on current data (December 4, 2025), here is a neutral analysis:
| **Entry** | **Reasons for** | **Reasons against** | **Suggested Target / Stop-Loss** | **Subjective Probability (based on data)** |
|-------------|---------------------|-----------------------|-----------------------------------|--------------------------------------------|
| **Long (Buy)** | - Bullish "W" pattern and neutral RSI (possible reversal).<br\- Strong support at $120-125 (high volume).<br\- Solid fundamentals: new ETFs, integrations (Revolut, bridges), rising TVL.<br\- Bullish predictions: $165 short term, $170-190 by end of 2025 if BTC rises.<br\- 84% bullish sentiment in the community. | - Correlation with BTC (if BTC falls, SOL follows).<br\- Recent ETF outflows and 8.9% volatility (may drop further).<br\- Bearish moving averages in the short term. | Target: $150 (immediate resistance), $165 (next).<br\- Stop-Loss: $125 (below support). | High (60-70%): Bullish momentum if it breaks $145. |
| **Short (Sell)** | - Continued decline from ATH (-52%), with -15% in 30d.<br\- Fear & Greed at "Fear" (28), possible more panic.<br\- Volume indicates residual institutional selling.<br\- If BTC corrects, SOL amplifies (high beta). | - Network without outages (confidence in the network).<br\- Redeployment of $321M on chain and hype on X (builders, memes).<br\- Majority models see upside (e.g., +19% in December).<br\- RSI not overbought, avoids premature shorts. | Target: $125 (support), $110 (next).<br\- Stop-Loss: $150 (above resistance). | Medium (30-40%): Only if it breaks $120 downwards. |
**General Recommendation**: At this moment, the bias is **slightly bullish for long** if SOL maintains >$135 and BTC stabilizes. Wait for confirmation of a breakout above $145 to enter long (better R:R). For short, only on breakdown of support with high volume. Monitor ETF and BTC news. DYOR and trade safe! If you need more technical details, let me know.
