$BTC Tiger Research just published one of the most important pieces of analysis in the entire Bitcoin ecosystem this cycle.
Key takeaways:
✅ MicroStrategy’s current capital structure can survive a >70% Bitcoin crash all the way down to ~$23,000 before assets fall below liabilities.
That’s the lowest publicly identified breakeven point of any major corporate BTC holder.
✅ Short-term, MSTR is the most resilient large-scale Bitcoin accumulator on the planet thanks to its mix of preferred shares, convertible notes, and ATM equity offerings.
BUT here’s the part everyone needs to pay attention to…
⚠️ 2028 = The Hidden Time Bomb
A massive concentration of call options on MicroStrategy’s convertible notes clusters in 2028.
If Bitcoin is trading near or below the insolvency zone by then and sentiment turns negative, note holders can force early redemption.
Worst-case outcome:
MicroStrategy suddenly owes up to $6.4 billion in cash
Forced liquidation of hundreds of thousands of BTC
A single-day sell-off potentially equaling 20–30% of global Bitcoin spot volume
That’s not just an MSTR problem. That’s a market-wide shock event.
Bottom line from Tiger Research: Near-term: MicroStrategy is built like a tank.
Long-term: 2028 is the date circled in red that could either prove the strategy unbreakable… or trigger the mother of all capitulation waves.
Every Bitcoin holder—retail or institutional—now has to add “convertible note maturity walls” and “forced liquidation risk” to their macro watchlist.
The era of treating corporate Bitcoin treasuries as simple price proxies is over. Financial engineering now matters as much as hash rate and ETF flows.
Full credit: Tiger Research (Asia’s sharpest Web3 research desk)
Read the original report and share this if you think the market isn’t pricing in 2028 correctly yet.
#Bitcoin #MicroStrategy #MSTR #CryptoRisk
