Market attention is focused on the speech of Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda next Monday (December 1).

On November 29, the Nomura Securities research team clearly pointed out in their latest weekly report that the probability of a rate hike by the Bank of Japan in December has significantly risen from less than 20% last week to over 50%. (A rate hike by the Bank of Japan is often seen as a potential 'black swan' that could impact the cryptocurrency market, mainly because it can directly withdraw liquidity from the cryptocurrency market through mechanisms like arbitrage trading liquidation and global liquidity tightening. The table below can help you quickly understand the core logic and potential impact.)

Next Monday, if you pay attention to the speech, focus on the following two points:

1. First is the latest assessment of the spring wage negotiations. If Ueda makes positive comments about spring wage increases, the market may interpret it as a hint of a rate hike in December.

2. Pay attention to Ueda's latest views on Japan's core inflation. As of mid-November, Ueda assessed that Japan's core inflation "is gradually rising towards 2%". If Ueda raises his comments on core inflation, the market may interpret it as a hint of a rate hike.