THERE ARE 16 DAYS LEFT UNTIL THE DECISION – THE PROBABILITY OF INTEREST RATE CUT IS RISING TO 75%
According to CME FedWatch, the market is pricing in a 75.5% chance that the FED will cut interest rates to the range of 350–375 bps at the meeting on 10/12.
The scenario of 'maintaining interest rates' is now only 24.5%, while the chance of increasing interest rates has dropped to 0%.
Notably: this is the highest expected loosening level in many months, occurring against the backdrop of a sharp market decline and weaker-than-expected labor data. Yields are down, and the USD is weakening, which are signals that the market is betting the FED must act to avoid the risk of a hard landing.
If the FED cuts interest rates, BTC and risky assets will react immediately – but volatility may be large before and after the meeting.
