The Federal Reserve's internal stance on interest rate cuts is currently at an impasse, with a support-to-opposition ratio of about 4:5. Market expectations for a pause in rate cuts in December continue to rise. At this critical moment, Powell has chosen an unusual silence.

Currently, the Federal Reserve is facing an awkward situation: on one hand, the market urgently needs clear policy guidance, while on the other hand, there has been a rare divergence of opinions within the committee in recent years. Powell's vote on the December rate cut is crucial for the FOMC; however, given the current situation, Powell does not support the rate cut. It remains to be seen whether a turning point will emerge in the coming week.

Powell's "stubbornness" is essentially a gamble about "confidence" and "risk."

He is betting that, supported by the currently strong labor market, the U.S. economy can withstand a longer period of high interest rates without falling into recession. This is a narrow path to a "soft landing."

What he fears is that the specter of inflation will return, which would completely destroy the Federal Reserve's credibility and could lead to an economic hard landing.

Especially since he will be stepping down next year, he would not want to tarnish his legacy. Based on the situation of the Federal Reserve just last week, I believe there is a high probability of a rate cut, as the current Federal Reserve is indeed quite anxious. #美国非农数据超预期 #鲍威尔发言