Market Structure: Currently, the structure is 'Pullback Confirmation Resistance → Secondary Downtrend'
Combining with the K-line full cycle you provided, it can be confirmed:
ETH is following a standard bearish trend repair pullback structure.
The structural characteristics are very obvious:
Continuous acceleration of bearish candlestick declines.
Hitting 2620 shows a single pin bar absorption.
Then it pulls back to the resistance level of 2704.
At the resistance level, it is directly smashed back → indicating that the bulls have not successfully reversed.
4H and 8H are both blocked by resistance.
This belongs to: Pullback luring the bulls → Encountering resistance → Continuing the bearish trend.
The most likely next move:
Weak pullback → Testing 2620 again.
If it reaches 2620 again:
Once the entity breaks below 2620 → the bearish acceleration phase begins.
Lower targets: 2580 → 2500.
Continuing to oscillate in the range of 2704–2760, then it will fall again (high probability).
Strongly breaking through 2760 (lowest probability, current structure does not support it).
Breakthrough requirements:
4H MACD forms a golden cross.
8H core structure reversal.
Currently, it is completely unfeasible.
Strategy Suggestions:
Bearish direction as the main focus (core).
Shorting range:
2700–2705 (strongly verified resistance).
2740–2760 (stronger pressure zone, can add positions short).
Shorting conditions:
4H or 1H entity breaking below 2620 → triggering bearish acceleration phase.
Targets:
First target: 2580.
Second target: 2500.
Support and Resistance Levels:
Type Position
Resistance 2704 / 2740 / 2760 / 2840–2880
Support 2620 / 2580 / 2500
