👀👀👉BLS September 2025 U.S. Jobs Report and Fed Policy
The September 2025 U.S. jobs report, showing 119,000 jobs added but a rise in the unemployment rate to 4.4%, creates a mixed but important data point for the Federal Reserve's decision-making. On one hand, stronger-than-expected job creation signals economic resilience, supporting the idea that the Fed may hold or cautiously adjust interest rates. On the other hand, the uptick in unemployment and only modest wage growth provide arguments for potential rate cuts to support the labor market.
Moreover, the delayed data due to the government shutdown and the absence of November’s jobs report at the time of the Fed's December 9-10 meeting heighten uncertainty. Policymakers will likely be cautious, weighing the stronger payrolls against the weakening labor market indicators and inflation trends. Many Fed officials have expressed concern that cutting rates prematurely could risk inflation control, but the mixed report tempers confidence in a clear direction. The Fed might therefore lean toward maintaining current rates or a very gradual approach to cuts, balancing inflation risks with labor market softness.