📌 Core Signal

1. Bitcoin Short-term Trend

Current Price: $92,108.87 (24h ↑0.68%)

Market Structure: After experiencing a significant decline over 7 days (↓10.3%), the price has shown a slight technical rebound, but the overall bearish structure has not changed, and the rebound strength is limited.

Liquidation Warning: Funding rate has surged in the last 24 hours (+82.86%), indicating a rapid increase in bullish sentiment, and the market is becoming crowded, laying the groundwork for a potential 'bull trap' or 'long squeeze'. Meanwhile, the exchange whale ratio is as high as 0.9462, meaning that whale activity on exchanges remains frequent, and potential selling pressure cannot be ignored.

Overview of liquidation: The market shows strong short-term and medium-term signal conflicts. In the short term, there is a huge net outflow from exchanges (-8,308.4 BTC), which is a strong bullish signal. However, in the medium term, the 90-day cumulative trading volume difference (CVD) is still dominated by sellers, indicating that any rebound may face strong selling pressure from the medium-term trend.

2. Operation window

  • Extreme contradictions in long and short signals: The market shows a rare phenomenon of "fire and ice." On one hand, exchange reserves have declined (-0.34%) and funds are flowing out in large volumes, indicating that chips are being locked away, which is bullish for prices. On the other hand, the spot market faces heavy medium-term selling pressure, and the futures market is driven by "retail orders," resulting in overall participation being low and confidence in chasing highs being severely lacking.

  • Capital game differentiation intensifies: The spot market has seen "whale large orders," indicating that large funds are leading the current range game, but their intentions are unclear. The muted response from the futures market suggests that broader market participants do not recognize this rebound and are still waiting for clearer signals.

  • Valuation reference: The MVRV ratio has slightly rebounded to 1.6445, still within the historically neutral range, neither entering the capitulation zone (at 1) typically indicating a bottom, nor far from the euphoric zone (greater than 3.7), suggesting that the market is still in a stage of directional choice, with significant room on both the upside and downside.

3. Macro narrative and risks

  • The Fed's policy game intensifies: The Fed's meeting minutes indicate a slight hawkish advantage, lowering expectations for rate cuts in December. However, officials are divided (Waller supports rate cuts vs. Milan hints at potential future tightening), and the market views tonight's non-farm payroll data as the key "life-and-death data" for determining the December interest rate path.

  • Tech stock sentiment delivers good news: Nvidia's Q3 revenue exceeded expectations, driving a global surge in chip stocks and boosting market risk appetite. This strong expectation for AI computing power demand is likely to generate positive on-chain activity impacts for ETH ecosystem projects like DePIN/AI proxies, providing a narrative support for the crypto market independent of macro factors.

  • Geopolitical risk alleviation and differentiation: News of secret peace talks being drafted between the U.S. and Russia marginally eases global risk aversion. However, friction between China and Japan has escalated due to Taiwan-related comments, with countermeasures implemented by China, increasing uncertainty in the Asia-Pacific region, which may suppress speculative capital from that area.

⚠ Must watch events

[Tonight 21:30] U.S. September non-farm payroll data → The core focus of the market. If the data is significantly weak (e.g., ≤40,000), it will reignite hopes for interest rate cuts, benefiting risk assets; if the data is strong (e.g., ≥60,000), it will strengthen hawkish stances and suppress the market.

[Continue monitoring] Exchange fund flow → Whether the current trend of huge net outflows can continue is a key on-chain indicator for assessing the authenticity of this rebound.

[Continue monitoring] G20 summit geopolitical dynamics → Be cautious of unexpected friction in Sino-Japanese relations during the meeting, which could impact market sentiment.

🚀 Minimal strategy pool

Aggressive investors: Market signals are extremely contradictory and risks are enormous. One can participate with light positions in short-term rebounds driven by "exchange net outflows," but given the crowded long positions and high funding rates, strict stop losses must be set, and caution is needed for rapid price reversals. Alternatively, one can test short positions when the rebound loses momentum, aligning with the medium-term selling pressure trend (90-day CVD) to seek profits from "long-term squeezes."

Conservative investors: Clear exit and wait signals. Before the core contradiction between "short-term bullish fund flow" and "medium-term bearish market structure" is resolved, entering the market recklessly is like gambling. The best strategy is to wait for tonight's non-farm data release and make decisions after the market direction becomes clear.

Short position holders: Continue to hold short positions. This is a period of intense confrontation between "on-chain buying" and "macroeconomic uncertainties." Wait for tonight's non-farm data to provide a definitive signal for the market and observe whether the on-chain fund flow resonates with the price direction before seeking a more stable entry point.