#美股2026预测 Recently watching US stock data, there is an intuitive feeling:

In 2026, the US stock market is unlikely to rise continuously as it did in the past few years, but rather enter a stage of "slow running at high levels + increased differentiation".

Simply put, a few key points:

① AI is still pushing forward, but valuations are too high.

Capital expenditures continue to rise, AI remains the theme, but the overall valuation of tech stocks is already high, making it much more difficult for a bull market to occur in 2026 compared to 2024 and 2025.

② Interest rates and inflation are key variables.

The pace of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts is uncertain, and inflation has not stabilized completely.

In short: if interest rates do not come down, valuations will not rise.

③ Institutions remain generally optimistic about the US stock market in the long term.

This is not the kind of optimism seen in a bull market, but rather, "the economy is not bad, companies can still make money, so the index can slowly rise".

Moderate increases may be the main melody.

④ Styles will become more differentiated.

* Tech/AI: continue to lead, but the growth will not be as exaggerated as in the early stages of AI.

* Value/Defensive: if the macroeconomic environment weakens, these sectors will be reassessed.

* Small-cap stocks: dependent on how much rates are cut, otherwise the pressure remains.

In summary:

The US stock market in 2026 is more like "navigating through a volatile structural market", not a bull market, nor a bear market.

Good sectors will still be strong, but the pace of the index will slow down.