Last night, the market faced a critical moment—Bitcoin fell below 93000 USD, and Ethereum lost the important level of 3000 USD. With the end of the U.S. government shutdown, all eyes are on the upcoming backlog data, which will directly influence the Federal Reserve's decisions in December.
Key Data Release Schedule
The U.S. Department of Commerce has just announced the release schedule for important data:
November 20: September Non-Farm Payroll Data
November 21: September Real Wage Data
November 26: Third Quarter GDP Revision
November 26 Evening: October Personal Income and Expenditure Data
December 4: October Trade Data
December 19: Final GDP for the third quarter
The next three weeks = a life-and-death moment
These data points will constitute the most important market turning point this year. If last night's drop was a 'false move', then the correct script should be: the Fed's dovish officials begin to use this week's data to pave the way for a rate cut in December.
My personal prediction
Although the market's expectation for a rate cut in December is only a little over 40% at the moment, I believe the possibility of a rate cut is quite high. The reason is simple: most of the hawkish officials who spoke recently do not have voting rights.
Pay close attention to the release dates of unemployment rate and PCE data, as these are key points in the climbing process that will determine whether the market breaks upwards or continues to decline.
In the next three weeks, every data release could trigger significant market volatility. I advise everyone to fasten their seatbelts and prepare for this critical period!
Do you think there will be a rate cut in December? Feel free to share your views in the comments!
