Contract trading determines market trends mainly through three core methods: technical analysis, fundamental analysis, and market sentiment analysis, specifically as follows:
1. Technical Analysis: This is the most commonly used method. Moving averages can indicate long-term trends, with short-term moving averages crossing above long-term moving averages often signaling upward movements; an RSI below 30 indicates oversold conditions that may lead to a rebound, while above 70 suggests overbought conditions that may lead to a correction; when the MACD line crosses the signal line, it often indicates a trend reversal; a price breakout after the Bollinger Bands narrow often signifies the start of a new trend, especially when combined with trading volume, as trends accompanied by increased trading volume are more reliable.
2. Fundamental Analysis: Focuses on the core factors affecting the value of cryptocurrencies. On one hand, it considers the cryptocurrency itself, such as Bitcoin halving, project technology upgrades, partnerships, or forks; on the other hand, it looks at the external environment, like regulatory policies on cryptocurrencies in various countries and macroeconomic dynamics such as Federal Reserve interest rate decisions, which can significantly impact market trends.
3. Market Sentiment Analysis: Can utilize the Crypto Fear and Greed Index for judgment, as extreme greed may indicate a market correction, while extreme fear might suggest a bottoming rebound. Additionally, tracking large on-chain transactions, whale address movements, and changes in exchange holdings can also provide insights into the movements of major funds, assisting in determining market trend direction. #鲍威尔发言
