Xiao Shiyilang's comprehensive analysis of long-term Dan! If you miss it, you'll have to wait another year!
Bitcoin has fallen below the 100,000 mark, and the bears have been pressing down in a crushing manner, from this week’s high of 107,400 to the current continuous decline, with sporadic rebounds failing to support the trend. Institutional selling has further pushed the downward momentum, fully creating a bear market atmosphere.
The whole network is calling for 110,000, 120,000, or even 150,000, with bottom-fishing long positions piling up? The truth in the cryptocurrency world is often on the opposite side of retail investors! The levels that most people firmly believe in are often not supported by the market.
Xiao Shiyilang believes that the next probability is a sharp drop to around 88,000—retail investors will never catch the true bottom!
The history of Bitcoin has long made it clear: it has always followed the cyclical pattern of "rising for three years and falling for one round." It rose for so long before, so entering a period of cyclical decline now is very normal; this is also a necessary path towards a mature market—now this wave of adjustment has officially begun.
The technical aspects are also clearly signaling to sell: the weekly chart has fallen for three consecutive weeks, a solid bearish signal, with sellers having full control. Moreover, Bitcoin has consistently been below the long-term moving averages, showing no signs of recovery, and the momentum of this decline is still ongoing!
So the long-term target is directly aimed at 88,000; if it breaks down, it will continue to look lower.
