Is it a bull? Is it a bear? Let's start with the conclusion: Bull! No matter if it looks like a bull or a bear, now is the best time to buy, which only happens once a year!
Today, let's talk in detail about the indicators. Multiple indicators triggered a strong medium-term buy signal today.
The market pulse index fell to 6 (Figure 2), triggering a strong signal. This indicator is a market sentiment indicator calculated based on 11 different indicators, suitable for medium- to long-term swing trading.
The fear and greed index fell to 16. This index is known to many. Comparing its cycle, each time it drops below 20 (extreme fear), it oscillates for more than a month (it has been oscillating for a month), and then a strong trend begins, suitable for big trend trading.
The RSI short-term swing indicator (Figure 4) is suitable for monitoring the tops and bottoms of oscillating markets, with a high accuracy rate for oscillating tops and bottoms. The limitation of this indicator is that in a one-way market (having risen by 50% at that time), the indicator becomes dull, that is, breaking through 20|80 reacts sluggishly. A one-way upward movement may only meet the top above 95, and a one-way downward movement may only meet the bottom below 10, making it difficult to grasp, and it is only recommended for monitoring oscillating tops and bottoms.
🔔🔔🔔Highlighting the point, the recent outflow of Bitcoin ETFs has caused multiple declines in this bull-bear cycle. As shown in the image below (too many images to fit here, images in the comments), since the beginning of 2024, the Bitcoin held by institutions has exceeded the balance in exchange wallets. Moreover, there is a trend of increasing institutions and decreasing exchanges.
Although there has been a significant outflow from institutions recently, from the image below (image in the comments), the amount held is still far greater than the outflow amount. This outflow is at most equivalent to the institutional outflow at the end of 2024, which also caused a substantial decline. This indicator should be paid more attention to recently, as a continuous inflow from institutions will initiate a one-sided upward trend.
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