'Gold rose 40% in 5 months, why is Bitcoin still seemingly asleep?'
Recently, I've been overwhelmed by this question in my background, many newcomers are staring at the K-line and stamping their feet, even considering selling Bitcoin to chase after gold. As someone who has been in the crypto space for 8 years, today I want to share my honest thoughts with you: this market trend isn’t that Bitcoin isn’t performing, it’s just not its turn to shine yet!
I want to understand this logic, so let’s first review the old accounts from 2020— that wave of 'the rotation drama between gold and Bitcoin' is still a classic case I teach to beginners. From March to August 2020, gold surged as if it had a cheat code, rising 43%, and the financial channels were filled with headlines like 'the gold bull market has arrived', even my mom asked me if I wanted to buy gold bars.
During the same period, Bitcoin rose by 168%, and many shouted, 'Bitcoin has won,' but insiders were laughing secretly: this isn’t a rise, it’s clearly just filling the pit of the 312 crash; the actual price isn't much different from before the crash. At that time, I reminded my students in the community: 'The crazier gold rises, the better you should hold onto your chips; this is the funds warming up.'
Sure enough, after gold peaked, it entered a 3-year sideways trend, while Bitcoin surged like a runaway horse—from just over 10,000 all the way to 63,000! Those who cut their Bitcoin to chase gold were later banging their thighs in the community every day; I still find that scene both real and amusing.
The current script is almost identical to 2020: after gold rose nearly 40%, it recently started to move sideways, clearly showing signs of taking a break. Some may ask: 'Back then, we were flooding the market, but now it’s different?' This statement is only half right—back then it was 'flood irrigation,' while now it's 'precise drip irrigation,' but the core logic remains unchanged: the Federal Reserve has long entered a rate-cutting cycle, and balance sheet reduction has also stopped; liquidity in the market has been continuously increasing.
The more critical signal is the movement of funds: the fact that a large funds 'safety net' asset like gold can rise so sharply indicates that money in the market has nowhere to go and is looking for high-yield exit points. The U.S. debt has just surpassed 38 trillion dollars; this money can't just stay in gold forever, right? The crypto market, as the 'dark horse of returns' in recent years, will eventually catch the eye of the funds.
Last week, a fan who just entered the market for 3 months messaged me, saying that while watching others flaunt their gold profits, their Bitcoin was stagnant, and they wanted to cut and switch. I immediately sent him a comparison chart of the K-line from 2020 and told him: 'Cutting now is no different from selling Bitcoin to chase gold in 2020; when Bitcoin takes off, you won’t even have time to cry.'
In fact, what beginners should remember is not the K-line indicators, but the 'rotation iron law' of the crypto circle: gold warms up first, Bitcoin makes the final surge. Now that gold is taking a break, Bitcoin isn't lying flat; it’s gathering strength for a washout—washing out those impatient retail investors so that the subsequent market can move more steadily.
Don’t stay up late every day staring at the market, and don’t listen to the 'gods' in the group shouting 'the bear market is here.' What you should do now is to hold your chips tightly, avoid unnecessary moves, and patiently wait for the trend to become clear. After all, in the crypto circle, the ones who make money are never the most impatient; instead, it’s those who can endure until the climax.
I break down market signals and rotation logic every day to help you avoid the pitfalls of being a beginner. Do you find what I'm saying realistic? Follow me so you don't get lost, and I'll give you a heads-up before the next market starts! Follow me.
