BTC98000！ETH3154！US stocks crash, the cryptocurrency market is in trouble！
Last night's crash in the cryptocurrency market was not related to the projects; the essence remains that "high-risk assets" were dragged down by the US stock market.
According to historical patterns, after the US government resumes operations, US stocks usually strengthen within 1 to 2 weeks, but this time it was completely the opposite: on the first day back to work, the three major indices plummeted, with the Nasdaq down over 2%, and AI, chips, and cryptocurrency concepts all fell, led by Nvidia and Tesla.
This round of turbulence mainly comes from two points:
(1) Stalemate panic → Data anxiety
After the government resumes work, a large amount of delayed macro data (September-October non-farm payrolls, retail) will be concentrated and released, directly affecting whether there will still be interest rate cuts this year.
Federal Reserve officials continue to adopt a hawkish stance, causing the probability of a rate cut in December to plummet from 69% to 52%, with expectations rapidly re-priced, leading to sharp fluctuations in risk assets based on "rate cut trades", with Bitcoin once again falling below $100,000.
(2) Alibaba Qwen news ignites AI panic
Alibaba upgraded "Tongyi" and renamed it "Qwen", planning to launch GPT-like agent-based AI.
Wall Street is worried that China's AI is accelerating its catch-up, with open-source and free models impacting globally, diluting the returns on the massive investments made by American tech giants.
In addition, Meta’s cash flow is under pressure, Oracle’s capital expenditure has surged, and cloud vendors are expanding data centers while in debt, with short sellers taking the opportunity to amplify panic before Nvidia's earnings report and collaborating with quantitative selling.
The real determining factor for the year-end market: liquidity！
The government opening means fiscal operations will resume, and there will be significant fiscal injections in the next two months; the stimulus before the midterm elections is also difficult to avoid.
Multiple officials have indicated that a decline in reserves may force the Federal Reserve to passively expand its balance sheet.
Therefore, the key is not whether to "cut rates or not", but how quickly liquidity can return. The turbulence at the end of October has prompted the Federal Reserve to use temporary tools to inject liquidity, making a December rate cut still possible.
Technical aspect: more like a deep washout before the year-end
Both the cryptocurrency market and US stock indicators have generally broken down, with the Nasdaq falling to the 50-day moving average:
If it holds, the bulls still have a chance;
If it breaks, it will enter a technical adjustment.
Short sellers chose to crash the market on the first day of the government opening, which is a typical psychological war:
It both harvests the bulls believing "the market must rise when it opens" and cleans up chips for the year-end market.
Did you see that yesterday, Chuanzi was still hosting a welcome dinner at the White House for Wall Street executives, enjoying a feast, brothers！
