Flow Reduction - Last night, why did Bitcoin plummet again?
1. A whale holding for 15 years sold approximately $1.3 billion worth of Bitcoin, exacerbating market selling pressure.
After Bitcoin broke below short-term support, it led to a price breakdown and a short-term decline.
2. The decline of U.S. tech stocks dragged Bitcoin down, with Wall Street's risk aversion heating up; the correlation between U.S. stocks and Bitcoin has been very close in the past two years.
3. The Fear and Greed Index has reached [Extreme Fear]; it was 15 yesterday, and is expected to be single digits today, leading to panic selling by retail investors. Here, I want to remind everyone that when the index is below 10, the probability of a significant reversal is 100%, and you can check the data from 2017-2025 yourself.
4. The de-leveraging effect of 1011 still exists, and large players remain despondent.
5. Historical patterns have reinforced bottom panic sentiment; the vast majority believe it is already the end of the year, that the bull market has ended, and are despairingly liquidating.
Conclusion: Whale selling + technical breakdown + macro risks + capital withdrawal in resonance is the main reason for the frequent bearish decline in recent days.
Personal analysis: I still hold the conclusion that Bitcoin will exceed 200,000 by the end of January; today is the true bottom at $BTC 98000 USD.
The Fear and Greed Index has not yet come out, but it will definitely be in single digits; a significant reversal won't take long. When others are in extreme fear, you should go against the trend and buy, buy, buy.
Just like when Bitcoin was at 120,000 and others were in extreme greed at 96, you should be in extreme fear and quickly sell, sell, sell.
Follow me; after the evening data update, I will release today's data so we can escape the peak and buy the bottom.
