Let me tell you a heartbreaking truth: in the world of contracts, 9 out of 10 newcomers fail, and among those 9 who stumble, 8 think they are 'smarter than others.'
This thing is not an investment at all; it's clearly spot trading with a 'frenzy buff.' Earning money feels like picking it up from the ground, and my hands shake when counting it; losing money feels like being robbed at gunpoint, and you can't even keep your underwear. How many people enter the market with dreams of 'getting rich overnight,' only to find their principal reduced to 'the cost of calling mom' after just three days?
Last week, a fan brother sent me a private message filled with despair: 'Bro, I entered with 1000U, and in two weeks, I'm down to 300U, losing 13 trades in a row. Should I completely give up this line of work and go back to delivering food?'
I asked him to send over the transaction records, and when I opened it, I almost laughed out loud (not out of schadenfreude, but out of anger): 20 times leverage maxed out, the position is as heavy as carrying ten pounds of lead, stop loss? What is that? It turns out this isn't trading, it's gambling by pushing all the chips out to bet on high or low!
I told him: 'Don’t rush to deliver food, follow my 'dumb method', your account still has a chance.'
In the first week, I let him focus on one thing - the funding rate. This thing can be called the 'invisible wind vane' of the contract circle, 100 times more reliable than those so-called 'master predictions'. He found that the funding rate for ETH had been red for three consecutive days, what does that mean? The longs are 'paying salaries' to the shorts! It indicates that there are too many people going long in the market, which is getting a bit shaky, and the trend is likely to pull back.
I had him short with 3 times leverage, with a stop loss set at 2% (which means running away after losing 60 U), and a take profit set at 8%. What was the result? Three days later, the take profit was triggered, and he made a 12% profit in one trade, with the principal going from 300 U back to 336 U. The little brother was so excited he almost sent me a red envelope.
The second week was even more interesting, in the 4-hour chart, BTC was walking up along the middle band of the Bollinger Bands, RSI turned up from the oversold area at 30, and the trading volume directly increased by 1.5 times - this is a typical 'rebound signal'. I let him enter the market with 5 times leverage and strictly followed the rule of 'taking half off at 4% profit', setting a trailing stop on the remaining position. In the end, this trade made a 19% profit, and the principal shot up to over 400 U.
So, executing 'dumbly' for a month: never chase longs when funding fees are in the red, don’t blindly catch the bottom when in the green; once a single loss exceeds 3%, immediately stop for a week to reflect; use leverage no more than 5 times, and never touch over 10 times; single variety position size should not exceed 30%, and always leave a 30% gap in total position size. Guess what? Now his account has returned to 2800 U, a 9-fold increase!
Here, I must emphasize three 'life-saving iron laws' to all newbies. If you can’t remember them, I suggest you write them down and stick them on your computer:
First, funding fees are an 'invisible money shredder', not a 'welfare red envelope'. Positive rate = Longs giving money to shorts, so chasing highs at this time makes you a sucker; Negative rate = Shorts giving blood to longs, don’t rush to catch the bottom, it’s likely to drop further. Many people lose 30% of their money in a year due to fees and funding costs, which is an 'IQ tax', do you think it's a loss?
Second, leverage is a 'scalpel', not a 'toy gun'. Newbie friends, listen to me, 3-5 times leverage is enough, over 10 times is a tool used by professionals for 'precise harvesting'. If you, a newbie, use it to gamble, a 1% fluctuation will blow up your account, leaving you with no chance for a stop loss. Isn't that just giving away money?
Third, position size is a 'lifeline', not 'capital for flaunting wealth'. Never exceed 30% of the principal for a single variety, and never fill the entire position. In the contract industry, it’s not about who earns quickly, it’s about who survives longer. Even if you turn 10 times in one night, as long as there is one full position blowup, you’ll still return to square one.
I’ve been in this industry for five years and have seen too many 'geniuses who doubled overnight' and even more 'gamblers who lost everything in a week'. In fact, the difference between the two is not about how skilled they are, but whether someone has told them: which red lines are absolutely not to be crossed.
Contracts are things where money earned by luck will eventually be lost through skill. Those who can truly survive long-term are never the 'smartest' people, but those who 'know how to play dumb' and adhere to the rules.
