THE 4-YEAR CYCLE OF $BTC BITCOIN IS OUT OF RHYTHM
The "once every 4 years" rule of Bitcoin – revolving around halving cycles – is showing signs of shaking. In the past, Bitcoin prices usually peaked after halving, when supply decreased and the market entered a euphoric phase. But in 2024, $BTC peaked early at $73,000 (in March), before the April halving – something that has never happened before.
The main reason lies in institutional funding and the emergence of spot Bitcoin ETFs, causing significant capital to flow into the market earlier than expected. At that time, the supply-demand cycle was disrupted: prices skyrocketed even without the deflationary impact from halving.
Today's Bitcoin market is also more mature: long-term investors, regular accumulation strategies (DCA), and less swayed by the "pump & dump" mentality. This makes the sharp rise and then deep drop of previous cycles hard to replicate.
Additionally, macro factors such as interest rates, liquidity flow, and the Fed's monetary policy now have a much stronger influence. Bitcoin is no longer a "separate market," but is moving in sync with global finance.
Even if the old cycle may be broken, it doesn't mean Bitcoin will stop rising. It only indicates that the timing and pace of price increases have changed. Investors need to adapt to the new structure, rather than waiting for halving as the only "golden key."
The Bitcoin cycle is evolving alongside the market. The new era of BTC no longer revolves around "halving + FOMO," but is based on capital flow, liquidity, and long-term confidence.
