I am Jin Min! Today I will explain the 'chain reaction' between the crypto world and the real world. Last night, the key vote for the U.S. government restart failed, directly pulling the crypto market into a new turbulent vortex! The current BTC price is 102816 dollars, which seems like a small fluctuation, but it may hide a big signal. Let me clarify it for you!
News:
The key vote in the U.S. Senate on the (exemption federal employee funding bill) did not pass! This directly led to the market betting that the probability of a 'government restart being delayed until after the 16th' surged from less than half to 53%! Meanwhile, the originally most likely 'restart on the 8th-11th' probability plummeted to only 12%.
The government shutdown means that some departments in the U.S. will 'slack off,' and the advancement of economic policies and market confidence will be discounted! Historical data tells us that when this kind of uncertainty arises, the first thing funds think of is 'risk aversion.' The crypto market is inherently sensitive; the short-term market sentiment is bearish, and it is very likely to remain under pressure!
Technical Analysis:
Looking at the BTC market: The current price is stuck at 102816 USD. It looks like it's climbing up from a low point, but in fact, it's a 'weak rebound after a drop.' The strong resistance zone above looks like a big mountain, especially with a large sell order of 100 BTC near 104500. Anyone who wants to push through must first face this selling pressure!
The technical indicators are even more interesting: The MACD has indeed golden crossed, but the bullish momentum is as weak as if it hasn't eaten enough. The bars are short and slow, indicating insufficient momentum for the rebound. There are three layers of support below, which is the last line of defense for the bulls! If it cannot hold, it may drop again; if it holds, there might be a chance to breathe and oscillate.
Jin Min's Viewpoint: The news is chaotic, the technicals are under pressure, and now is not the time to be reckless!
Operational Advice:
Conservatives: Watching the show with no positions is the best! The market is currently in a tug-of-war with no results; if you go in now, you are just 'chives.' Wait until it either breaks below 98000 to confirm a downtrend or stabilizes above 104500 to break through the resistance before taking action!
Aggressive: Light positions to test the waters + firmly stick to stop losses! If you think 98000 can hold, try taking a maximum of 20% position.
For the old chives who are trapped: Don't rush to cut losses! If your cost is above 100,000, cutting now means a blood loss.
Lastly, I want to ask: Can we catch the bottom this time?
The 'black swan' of the government shutdown is still flying; BTC is unlikely to have a big market in the short term. But looking at it from another angle, every major policy upheaval in history has often provided opportunities after the crypto market shakes off the dust! The key now is to hold above 98000. If the support is effective, a rebound may come at any time; if it breaks, then we have to look for support further down.
Do you think this government shutdown wave will allow BTC to hold at 98000? Let's discuss your judgment in the comments; I will pick the most insightful replies! If you think what Jin Min says makes sense, give a like and share. Let's keep a close eye on the market and not be swayed by short-term fluctuations!
I am Jin Min. Follow me, and you won't get lost in the cryptocurrency world; there are ways to make money!
