🌍 Macro Analysis: From the end of the bull market to a mild adjustment period
The current Bitcoin market is experiencing a critical macro turning point, transitioning from the earlier bull market peak (or at least a strong expansion period) to a stage of weak demand and cautious mild adjustment (or bear market).
1. 🚨 Cycle Confirmation: The bull market has ended, and demand has dried up
Key Signal: The price has fallen below the cost benchmark of short-term holders (STH) ($112,500).
Macro Interpretation: The STH cost benchmark is a key indicator for determining market trends. When the price falls below this benchmark, it signals the 'official end of the bull market phase,' confirmed by both technical analysis and on-chain analysis. It indicates that the last batch of speculative buyers who chased highs are now at a loss, and there are no new buyers to absorb this selling pressure.
Market sentiment: Shifted from 'buying the dip' to 'selling the rebound' or 'waiting'.
2. 🛡️ On-chain resilience: Adjustment rather than panic
Key signal: 71% of the supply is still profitable; the unrealized loss rate (3.1%) is moderate.
Macro interpretation: Despite the market weakness, on-chain data indicates that this is not a capitulative deep bear market. Only if a large amount of supply falls into losses (usually over 10%) will it trigger massive panic selling. The current moderate loss state means that holders still have a strong 'psychological buffer' and have not triggered 'cost-agnostic selling' behavior.
Market outlook: This suggests that the market adjustment may be prolonged and characterized by a choppy bottoming process, rather than a sharp V-shaped reversal or a deep waterfall decline.
3. 💸 Dual blow on the demand side
Key signal: Continuous large-scale outflows from ETFs + ongoing selling pressure on spot CVD.
Macro interpretation: Both institutional and retail trading demand have significantly withdrawn. The continuous outflow of ETFs is a direct reflection of weakening macro capital interest in Bitcoin, putting systemic pressure on prices. Meanwhile, the deterioration of spot CVD indicates a lack of buying willingness among retail investors and high-frequency traders. Under this double whammy, the market lacks the incremental funds needed for a rebound.
4. 🧮 De-leveraging in the derivatives market
Key signal: Significant decrease in perpetual contract premiums; high demand for put options.
Macro interpretation: Traders are actively reducing risk exposure.
A decline in premiums indicates that the market has completed a round of 'de-leveraging', reducing overly optimistic long positions, which is beneficial for the long-term stability of the market as it lowers the risk of future liquidation-driven crashes.
A rise in put option premiums indicates that the market generally expects or hedges against short-term downside risks, with cautious sentiment dominating the derivatives market.
5. 💔 Anomalous behavior of long-term holders (LTH)
Key signal: Despite falling prices, LTH continues to reduce their holdings by 300,000 BTC.
Macro interpretation: This may be one of the most concerning macro signals. Long-term holders (LTH) are usually the most steadfast foundation of the market, and their behavior often foreshadows cyclical tops or significant turns.
Continuous selling during price declines may indicate that some experienced investors are using any rebound opportunities to exit, or they have lost confidence in the macroeconomic environment (such as sustained high interest rates) and Bitcoin's short-term upside potential. This increases the pressure on long-term supply.
🎯 Macro summary: Fragile balance
The market is currently in a fragile balance of 'supply-demand imbalance, cautious and waiting':
Supply side (holders): Most are still profitable and unwilling to capitulate, but long-term holders continue to reduce their holdings.
Demand side (buyers): Both institutional and retail trading demand have significantly withdrawn, resulting in negative capital flow.
To break this balance and achieve a sustained rebound, the only macro driver must be the return of demand, meaning that the spot ETF must revert to net inflows and align with prices recovering to the psychological price level of $112,000 - $113,000, confirming bull market confidence.
